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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Mixed as Peace Talks, Heatwave Push Prices

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European natural gas futures were mixed in after-hours trading on Monday. Dutch gas prices rose, supported by stronger cooling demand across Europe, while UK gas prices edged lower amid signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations, raising hopes of reduced energy market uncertainty.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract edged up by 0.257% to 42.20 euros ($48.22) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract lost 0.327% to trade at 100.73 pence ($1.33) per therm.

Market sentiment was influenced by developments in talks between Washington and Tehran. US Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that Iran had agreed to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country as negotiations continue.

Speaking in Burgenstock, Switzerland, Vance said the Trump administration remained committed to pursuing a peace agreement despite renewed tensions over the weekend following President Donald Trump's threat to resume strikes on Iran. Also on Monday, the US Treasury Department issued a temporary general license suspending sanctions on Iranian oil exports through Aug. 21.

However, in Qatar, 13 Indian and Pakistani workers were killed, and dozens were injured on Sunday after an explosion at the Ras Laffan LNG complex while workers were restarting operations halted following an Iranian attack in March. Authorities described the incident as a technical accident at the Barzan gas supply facility.

Qatar has begun returning empty LNG tankers to support a gradual recovery in exports. However, only one known laden LNG vessel has transited the key shipping route since the latest US-Iran agreement took effect, ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said in a note.

Weather also remained a key driver. Heat alerts were issued across 26 European countries as one of the region's most severe June heatwaves on record boosted air-conditioning demand. Severe Weather Europe said temperatures are expected to rise further in the coming days.

Asian LNG demand has also strengthened as warmer weather increases cooling needs, Hynes said. The competition for cargoes comes as Europe seeks to rebuild stocks ahead of winter. European gas storage sites were 46.4% full, compared with 55.4% a year earlier, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. Inventories also remain below the five-year average of 60.9%.

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