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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Fall as Trump Weighs Iranian Peace Plan

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European natural gas futures fell in late Friday trade as markets weighed geopolitical risk tied to a proposed US-Iran ceasefire extension and its potential impact on global energy routes.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract fell 1.237% to 46.37 euros ($54.11) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract declined 0.952% to 112.35 British pence ($1.51) per therm.

Trading was dominated by uncertainty out of Washington, where US President Donald Trump and senior officials were meeting to decide upon a proposal aimed at resolving the conflict in the Middle East. In a Truth Social post, Trump said Iran must permanently abandon any pursuit of nuclear weapons and called for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls. He also warned that any naval mines in the waterway would be destroyed and indicated that US forces would end their blockade of the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most sensitive chokepoints in global energy supply, carrying roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Markets have been on edge since escalating disruptions earlier in the year, including a US blockade of Iranian ports and reciprocal restrictions in the region, which have contributed to heightened volatility in energy prices.

Fundamentals in Europe continue to add pressure. Gas storage levels across the EU stand at 39.13% of capacity, down from 46.88% a year earlier and well below the five-year average of 52.8%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe and the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Trading Economics warned that ongoing supply disruptions could complicate efforts to rebuild inventories ahead of winter. At the same time, Europe is contending with an early-season heatwave, with cities including London, Paris and Madrid forecasting record temperatures.

Severe Weather Europe reported that 31 of 126 long-running monitoring stations logged their highest-ever May temperatures, with the most extreme readings concentrated in northeastern Spain.

Weather forecasters expect conditions to shift next week as Atlantic systems bring a more unsettled and windier pattern across parts of Europe, though some models suggest easing wind activity into mid-June.

Regarding LNG, ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is tightening availability and increasing competition among buyers. Spot LNG demand has firmed in North Asia, while Indian importers are also stepping up purchases amid a heatwave there.

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