FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Tumble Nearly 9% After Trump Pauses Iran Strikes, Signals Progress on Peace Deal

By

European natural gas futures declined sharply on Friday after US President Donald Trump canceled strikes against Iran, while once again claiming that a peace deal with the country was close to being finalized.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract dropped 7.79% to 45.820 euros ($53.04) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was down 8.57% to 109.50 British pence ($1.46) per therm.

In a Truth Social post on Thursday, Trump said he had canceled the "scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening" after discussions with Tehran were elevated to, and approved by, the highest levels of Iran's leadership.

He also added that the time and location for the formal signing of an agreement would be announced shortly, marking a major de-escalation in the conflict.

Iran, however, downplayed Trump's remarks, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei saying no decision had yet been reached on a potential agreement with the US, and any reports to the contrary were merely "speculation," according to the state-owned Tasnim News Agency.

Baqaei noted that "so far, Iran has not reached a final conclusion on the agreement," while adding that the country was not going to compromise on what it defined as its "red lines."

Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively shut for the 15th week running, with just two vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, this protracted blockade in the Hormuz is forcing Asian buyers into the spot market, which he said "spells trouble for European consumers," as gas deliveries to the region dropped 19% over the past month.

This comes at a time when European gas inventories remain depleted, at just 43.36% of capacity, compared to 52.12% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period at 57.6%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

Trump Says Deal to be Signed in Next Few Days; Strait of Hormuz to Open 'Very Soon'

US President Donald Trump said that the US has made a "great settlement" with Iran, adding that it should be finalized in the next few days, with a signing likely in Europe.Trump made the remarks during an interaction with reporters at a White House event on Thursday, posted on the White House social media channel."We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran, and we're going to be subject to finalization of documents," Trump said.He added that the agreement would be signed in the next few days, "We should get done over the next few days, probably have a signing, maybe in Europe..."Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would officially reopen once the agreement is signed, saying that could happen "very soon, maybe over the weekend..."Trump went on to note how oil markets had tumbled following the announcement."Oil dropped, oil will start coming down to, I think even lower than it was before... It's going to come down, and when oil comes down, everything else comes down," he said.He added the agreement would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, which he described as the main objective of the negotiations, and said the signing would take place "soon" because the documents are "in pretty final shape.""They [Iran] want it every bit as much as everybody else wants, and I think a lot of good relationships can ensue from this," Trump said, adding that he had spoken with leaders of countries including Israel, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.He added that he will also be talking to Turkey.The Middle East approved the deal, and the Strait of Hormuz will open soon, according to Trump."The whole Middle East is happy, and along beyond the Middle East, the Strait will open as soon as we have it signed," Trump said.The US President said that everyone in Iran had approved the deal, "And they've all approved the deal, everybody's approved the deal.".He added that it was a good deal for the US and the Middle East. "It's a great deal for the United States and for the Middle East, and I think ultimately great for Iran, because they'll be able to build up their country."Trump said the agreement remains highly likely to move forward, describing it as "a very detailed memorandum of understanding" backed by countries that hold significant influence over Iran.Responding to a reporter's question on whether the US military operation on Kharg Island scheduled for Thursday night is off the table, Trump said, "Well, now it would be if we signed this agreement, it would be."He reiterated that the US had been targeting vessels carrying large volumes of oil over the last month.Trump also pointed to Venezuela as an example of what he described as a successful energy and geopolitical relationship, saying the US has "millions of barrels of oil" flowing from Venezuela to Houston, and that cooperation with the Venezuelan government was "very good" and "couldn't be better."On Wednesday, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had been conducting "secret missions" allowing commercial ships to transport millions of barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.Oil prices extended their losses following Trump's remarks, with Brent crude falling 4.18% to $89.21 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude dropping 4.01% to $86.42/bbl.

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Futures Plunge After Trump Says Iran Conflict Resolved

Crude oil futures plunged in after-hours trading on Thursday, erasing recent gains, after President Trump said that a peace deal with Iran could be signed as soon as the weekend, easing fears of an immediate disruption to global energy supplies.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled 4.01% to $86.42 per barrel, while Brent futures retreated by 4.22% to $89.18/bbl.On Thursday, Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened as soon as a "great settlement" of the war in Iran was signed, a development that the US President expects to take place within days."We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran", Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, adding that the Hormuz will open as soon as the deal is signed, "which could be soon, very soon, maybe over the weekend in Europe."Earlier, Trump declared on Truth Social that he had canceled strikes against Iran planned for Thursday night, just hours after he had vowed to hit Tehran "very hard" and threatened to seize the country's oil infrastructure.Trump said there had been "discussions" that "have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership" surrounding peace negotiations to end the Middle East conflict.Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said that Trump has been posting for two months that a deal is imminent, but there has been no significant progress in the peace talks since the ceasefire started in early April.Trump said on Thursday that the US would hit Iran very hard tonight, while threatening to seize Iran's Kharg Island, the country's crude export terminal, "at some point in the not-too-distant future."On Wednesday, US forces hit targets in Iran and Tehran retaliated by launching missiles at several Middle East countries, including Jordan and Kuwait.Iran struck several US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, including Ali Salem and Ahmad al-Jaber air bases in Kuwait and Sheikh Issa air base in Bahrain, on Thursday. Tehran also carried out missile and drone attacks against US vessels operating in the Hormuz.The Persian Gulf Strait Authority, set up by Iran, said the Strait would be closed, including for oil tankers and commercial ships, and that vessels attempting to pass would come under fire. The strategic waterway handles about 20% of global oil and gas shipments.Separately, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day, according to the producer group's monthly report published on Thursday.The current forecast reduced the expected oil demand growth in 2026 from 1.17 million b/d to 800,000 b/d. For 2027, OPEC projected that demand would rise by 1.73 million b/d, up 190,000 b/d from the previous forecast.

Oil & Energy

Asia-Pacific's 32 GW Data Center Pipeline Reshapes Power Access Rules, Wood Mackenzie Says

Rising electricity demand from over 1,150 planned data center projects is prompting governments in the Asia-Pacific to introduce tougher grid access rules, Wood Mackenzie strategists said in a Thursday note.To secure power connections, developers increasingly need to add battery systems, reduce demand during grid stress and help support network reliability, the consultancy said.For some projects, finding enough electricity is becoming harder than securing land, permits or financing, according to the note.As governments tighten connection rules, large power users are taking on more responsibility for keeping electricity systems reliable and stable.Japan is considering allowing some facilities to connect before grid upgrades are completed if operators can cut power use when the network comes under pressure.To reduce strain on major cities, Japan, India and South Korea are encouraging developers to build data centers in regions with stronger power supplies.Australia has proposed requiring data centers larger than 30 megawatts to remain connected during voltage and frequency disturbances and to restore demand in a controlled manner afterward.Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea are using stricter approval requirements tied to energy efficiency, renewable power sourcing and potential grid impacts.According to Wood Mackenzie, battery storage, renewable energy purchases and curtailment measures are becoming regular costs for new data center developments.When choosing new locations, developers increasingly need to consider grid capacity and local power rules alongside customer demand and land availability, the consultancy said.