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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Trim Gains on Report of Fresh US-Iran Ceasefire Framework

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European natural gas futures pared earlier gains in after-hours trade Thursday after reports of a tentative US-Iran understanding raised expectations of a potential easing in Middle East shipping risks.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract was up 1.308% at 47.02 euros ($54.80) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract rose 0.628% to 113.75 pence ($1.53) per therm.

Earlier in the day, prices rose by more than 4%.

The downward price movement followed an Axios report saying US and Iranian negotiators have tentatively agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at extending a ceasefire and opening talks on Iran's nuclear program, pending approval from US President Donald Trump. The report, citing US officials and a regional mediator, said the framework could be announced as early as Sunday, though it remains subject to collapse.

Under the draft proposal, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would remain unrestricted. Iran would remove naval mines from the waterway within 30 days and cease interference with commercial traffic, while the US would gradually ease its naval posture and issue sanctions waivers to allow limited Iranian oil exports.

The prospect of restored flows through the strategic waterway weighed on risk premiums, given that passage through the strait has been heavily disrupted for nearly three months. Data from tracking services indicated only four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, compared with more than 100 on a typical pre-conflict day.

A normalization of traffic would ease global LNG supply constraints, potentially softening prices and allowing European buyers to rebuild storage ahead of the winter heating season.

European inventories remain structurally tight. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows storage levels just above 38% capacity, compared with nearly 47% at the same time last year.

Near-term fundamentals remain mixed. A European heatwave has boosted power demand while simultaneously constraining generation, with low wind output and pressure on hydro and nuclear cooling systems limiting supply flexibility. Analysts note solar generation has intermittently met a large share of UK demand, but broader renewable output has been uneven.

ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said seaborne LNG deliveries to Europe are running below seasonal norms, while North Asian LNG prices eased despite firmer spot market activity. He added that China's LNG imports have recovered to levels seen a year ago, supported by stronger demand from the transport sector.

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