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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Tick Up as Trump Shows Confidence in Quick Iran Conflict Resolution

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European natural gas futures made slight gains on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump signaled a potential quick end to the ongoing conflict with Iran.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 0.08% to 51.860 euros ($60.08) per megawatt hour, while the UK front-month NBP contract gained 0.06% to 126.750 British pence ($1.69) per therm.

On Tuesday, while addressing lawmakers at the White House's annual Congressional Picnic, Trump said that his administration was set to end the war "very quickly," while noting that even Tehran wanted to "make a deal so badly."

Vice President JD Vance echoed that sentiment, saying, "we think that we've made a lot of progress," while acknowledging lingering uncertainties and cautioning that it was difficult to draw firm conclusions until "we're actually putting pen to paper on signing a deal."

Tehran, however, is yet to confirm these developments, with no statements by any Iranian leaders or reports by the country's news agencies so far indicating any such shifts.

Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained closed for the 12th week running, with zero vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

Natural gas prices continued to remain elevated in Europe, with new supply disruptions, such as the operational issues at Malaysia's Bintulu LNG plant and the labour strike at Inpex's Ichthys LNG plant in Australia, weighing on supplies, according to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ.

This comes at a critical juncture for European markets, with gas inventories depleted at just 36.69% of capacity, witnessing a surprise withdrawal after weeks of steady injections. This compares to 44.71% of capacity during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories are also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 50.4%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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