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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slide Over 2% Despite Escalating Middle East Conflict

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European natural gas futures declined on Friday, but remained near their highest level since December 2022, amid ongoing disruptions to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures dropped 2.36% to 80.110 euros ($92.97) per megawatt-hour, while British NBP futures declined 2.51% to 199.920 British pence ($2.70) per therm.

Fighting between the US and Iran intensified this week, with both sides claiming attacks on tankers transiting the crucial waterway, heightening concerns over global energy supplies.

Despite this, traffic along the strait, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, held steady, with 17 transits on Thursday, according to data from ShipFinder.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that importers continued to seek increasingly scarce cargoes "with no resolution of the conflict in sight," while European gas inventories remained considerably below historical standards.

European gas inventories stood at 67.64% of capacity, below 79.86% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 83.8%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

What else is happening in Oil & Energy?

Oil & Energy

Hormuz Traffic Remains Subdued as Iran Maintains Pressure on Shipping

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels as Iran continues to surveil merchant vessels, while US forces have redirected almost 100 commercial ships to enforce compliance, shipping data showed Thursday.The UKMTO said Thursday in its 96-hour operational summary that no confirmed attacks or disruptions were reported during the latest period.However, activity by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has persisted, including drone overflights, targeted surveillance of merchant shipping and occasional radio hailing.The UKMTO said that activity signals Iran's continued intent to assert its presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on vessels using the strait.It said that independent vessel-tracking data showed traffic remained suppressed, with single-digit numbers of ships transiting in each direction.However, the agency said the US Navy reported higher activity, with commercial traffic averaging more than 20 vessel transits a day over the past week.The differing figures reflect the challenges of assessing shipping activity through the strategic waterway amid heightened security measures and changes in vessel-routing behavior.US forces have redirected 96 commercial vessels as of Sep. 10 as part of efforts to ensure compliance with restrictions, the US Central Command said in an X post. Over 50 vessels carrying humanitarian aid have been permitted to transit.Meanwhile, conditions in the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb did not change, with no confirmed attacks or disruptions reported during the latest period.Commercial traffic remains below normal levels, consistent with the pattern established after the July 20 Houthi declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and earlier confirmed attacks on vessels in the region.On Thursday, Yemen's Houthis reportedly seized control of the port city of Mocha on Thursday and advanced down the Red Sea coast to strategic islands.Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam posted on X Thursday, saying that operations carried out by the Yemeni armed forces in some coastal areas were a national operation aimed at enforcing Yemeni sovereignty and addressing threats to civil peace.On maritime traffic, Abdulsalam said navigation and international trade through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb were safe and orderly, with no threat from Yemen."As for the freedom of navigation and international trade movement in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, it is safe and orderly, and there is no cause for any international concern regarding it, for it faces no danger from Yemen's side, and the operations currently underway are targeted in accordance with what was previously announced and fall within a defensive framework," according to a translation of Abdulsalam's post on X.Abdulsalam's remarks contrast with the continued caution among ship operators, with reduced traffic through both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb indicating heightened security concerns and the risk of vessels becoming caught up in regional hostilities.

Oil & Energy

Brent, WTI Surge 7% to Highest Levels Since May on Middle East Uncertainty

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Dangote Refinery Buys 16 Million Barrels of Nigerian Crude for October

Nigeria's Dangote refinery has bought at least 16 million barrels of Nigerian crude for October delivery, maintaining recent purchase levels as the 700,000-barrels-per-day plant ramps up processing, Reuters reported on Thursday.The volumes, equivalent to about 520,000 b/d, reportedly include monthly allocations from Nigerian National Petroleum, or NNPC, and crude purchased through a tender.Dangote received 565,000 b/d of Nigerian crude in August, nearly double last year's average, Reuters said, citing Kpler data. NNPC is to supply eight October Nigerian cargoes and one US WTI Midland cargo, while additional spot purchases will bring the total to 16 million barrels.Dangote Refinery and NNPC did not immediately respond to requests for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)