FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slide on Cooler Weather, Resumed US-Iran Talks

By

European natural gas futures fell in after-hours trading on Tuesday as cooler temperatures reached northern Europe and reports indicated that US-Iran peace talks had resumed.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract fell 2.19% to 48.015 euros ($55.84) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract declined 3.35% to 115.10 British pence ($1.55) per therm.

Iranian media outlets signaled that talks between Tehran and Washington remain ongoing, one day after reports suggested Iran had suspended negotiations. However, Iran's chief negotiator warned of potential escalation if Israel's attacks on Lebanon continue, CNN reported on Tuesday. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations over Iran's nuclear program would be "highly technical" and could take months.

Gas prices rose on Monday after Iran said it would withdraw from negotiations, but retreated on Tuesday as reports pointed to a resumption of talks.

Additionally, Mind Energy said the market appeared to have retreated on Tuesday amid somewhat more bearish signals from the weather forecasts.

Meanwhile, European Union gas inventories stood at 40.48% of storage capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, compared with 48.88% at the same time last year.

European buyers could also face less competition for LNG cargoes as demand from Asia softens.

Japanese demand has eased as the country's total LNG inventories are expected to reach approximately 5.1 million metric tons by the end of June, leaving buyers with limited need to secure additional spot cargoes in the near term, Kpler said in a social media post on Monday.

The combination of ample inventories and subdued demand is likely to weigh on prompt LNG prices in Asia, Kpler said.

Separately, ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said in a note on Tuesday that North Asian LNG prices were under downward pressure after Iran said it would ensure Japanese vessels could pass through the Strait of Hormuz with "greater ease and without problems," according to a social media post by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Related Articles

Commodities

New York Challenges Trump Offshore Wind Lease Cancellation in Lawsuit

New York and six other states have sued the Trump administration over a deal that would pay TotalEnergies $795 million to abandon an offshore wind lease off New York's coast, Governor Kathy Hochul and New York Attorney General Letitia James announced Tuesday.Calling the arrangement a "pay-not-to-play scheme," Hochul said the administration pressured a foreign energy company to walk away from offshore wind projects in favor of oil and gas investments.The lawsuit challenges a March 2026 agreement under which TotalEnergies (TTE) would surrender two offshore wind leases, invest hundreds of millions of dollars in fossil fuel projects and pledge not to pursue new offshore wind developments in the US.A TotalEnergies subsidiary, Attentive Energy, planned to develop the New York lease, which was expected to provide electricity to more than 700,000 homes and generate $25.6 billion in economic benefits over 25 years, including $10 billion in energy-bill savings.State officials said the project also would have created 1,716 jobs in New York while supporting infrastructure investment and long-term economic growth."The Trump administration is once again trying to kill clean energy projects and destroy good-paying jobs for New Yorkers," Attorney General Letitia James said.Attentive Energy paid $795 million for the offshore wind lease in 2022, but the Department of the Interior canceled the project in March 2026 after citing national security concerns and agreed to reimburse the company the same amount from the Judgment Fund.After courts blocked earlier attempts to halt wind-energy development, the administration "cooked up a sham deal to pay a foreign energy company hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars to abandon offshore wind and invest in oil and gas instead," James said.The coalition, which includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Vermont, argues the administration violated federal law and is asking the court to void the agreement, restore the lease and prevent further action to implement the deal.Department of the Interior and TotalEnergies did not immediately respond to' request for comment.Price: $89.58, Change: $+0.87, Percent Change: +0.98%

$TTE
Commodities

Tanker Markets Reshaped By Longer Voyages as Geopolitics Redraw Crude Flows, Vortexa Says

Global tanker markets have entered a phase of longer voyages, tighter effective fleet supply, and heightened volatility, as geopolitical tensions and shifting production centers continue to redraw crude flows, Vortexa strategists said in a note on Tuesday.Ioannis Papadimitriou, lead freight analyst, said that the Russia-Ukraine war marked the first major structural break, triggering sanctions-driven rerouting of crude and product flows.Russian barrels shifted toward Asia, while Europe increased reliance on Atlantic Basin supply, lengthening voyage distances and tightening effective vessel availability.Vortexa said Middle distillates saw particularly sharp disruption. Diesel flows previously moving from Russia to Northwest Europe were redirected to markets including West Africa and Brazil, while Europe replaced lost supply with cargoes from the Middle East, India and the US.Papadimitriou said the result was a sustained increase in tonne-miles as short-haul trade collapsed and long-haul routes expanded.Vortexa said a second major dislocation came from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea from early 2024, which forced widespread rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope.Though trade flows broadly remained intact, voyage distances on key east-west clean product routes effectively doubled. Clean tanker earnings outperformed crude at times as vessel demand tightened, and some VLCCs were deployed into atypical clean trades.The data analytics firm said that structural shifts have been reinforced by production growth and refinery changes, particularly in the Americas.Rising exports from Guyana, Brazil and Argentina, now about 3.5 million barrels per day, have flowed to Asia and Europe, extending crude ton-miles. Overall, crude ton-miles from the Americas have doubled since 2021.Meanwhile, changes in North American infrastructure have reshaped regional tanker demand. Canada's Trans Mountain expansion has redirected flows toward Asia, while Mexico's refinery build-out has altered short-haul product trade.On the US West Coast, Vortexa said refinery closures have increased import dependence, boosting demand for medium-range tankers and re-exports via the Caribbean.Vortexa said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has added another layer of uncertainty. Disruptions have redirected Atlantic Basin barrels into Asia, tightening vessel supply and increasing freight volatility.However, the data analytics firm forecasts that a prolonged closure of the waterway would be structurally negative for tanker demand, potentially reducing Very Large Crude Carrier ton-miles by 15 to 20% and clean tanker demand by about 7%.Going forward, Vortexa analysts said that the shifts in sanctioned crude trade, including renewed Venezuelan exports and fluctuating demand for Russian barrels, could continue to swing tanker demand between mainstream and "dark fleet" channels.

Commodities

Commodity Investor Assets Remain Below $1 Trillion Mark Amid Energy Price Volatility, RBC Says

Commodity investor assets under management remained stuck below the $1 trillion threshold in May, as weaker energy prices and sustained outflows from exchange-traded products weighed on the broader complex, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note Tuesday.The latest data from RBC showed continued fragility in both commodity index-linked assets and exchange-traded products, with headline-driven volatility shaping monthly pricing dynamics.RBC analysts said that energy once again proved the key driver of dispersion across the asset class.Though the sector accounted for 55% of year-to-date gains, it reversed sharply in May as sentiment-driven price weakness led to an estimated $20 billion negative impact on index assets. RBC said that the drag more than offset gains in base metals and left total benchmark commodity index AUM tracked by the bank at $351.4 billion.RBC analysts said across broader exchange-traded products, AUM fell 1.9% over the month to $610.5 billion, marking the lowest level since December. The decline was driven by about $10 billion in negative price effects alongside $1.8 billion in net outflows.Energy saw persistent investor redemptions, with $2.6 billion in outflows, its third consecutive month of net withdrawals.However, despite intermittent inflows into energy within certain structures, the broader complex continued to see net selling pressure, extending a three-month streak of ETP outflows for the first time since early 2024.RBC said that while roll yield dynamics normalized after several volatile months, helped previously by steep backwardation in energy markets, recent softening in prompt prices and a flatter curve reduced that tailwind in May.However, RBC analysts cautioned that potential summer supply tightness could reintroduce curve-driven volatility in the months ahead.