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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as Renewed Middle East Tensions Cast Doubt on Peace Deal

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European natural gas futures were rallying on Wednesday as tensions continued to intensify in the Middle East, casting a cloud on peace negotiations between the US and Iran.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract rose 3.91% to 49.470 euros ($57.45) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract rose 4.05% to 119.440 British pence ($1.61) per therm.

On Wednesday, US Centcom said on X that it had defeated "multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones," aimed at regional neighbors. The US also conducted another round of self-defense strikes against Iran's Qeshm Island in retaliation to Iran reportedly firing missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain.

Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for the 14th week running, with just 4 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, this is set to put additional pressure on European buyers, as they "struggle to refill storage facilities," as Asian imports continued to rise since April.

Hynes also warned that the region's supply constraints could worsen with Australian workers at the Ichthys LNG facility commencing strikes after talks stalled between the union and the company.

European gas inventories remained depleted at just 40.76% of capacity, compared to 48.88% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 54.7%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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