European natural gas futures climbed in after-hours trading on Tuesday as tightening supply conditions and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East supported prices.
The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 3.532% to 52.025 euros ($60.38) per megawatt hour, while the UK front-month NBP contract gained 3.155% to 127.19 British pence ($1.70) per therm.
The widening gap between the US and Iran has increased concerns that any resolution to the Middle East conflict and the related disruptions to energy flows remain distant. Some of the immediate concerns were muted late Monday after US President Donald Trump said he had called off a military strike on Iran.
Near-term demand may get a boost from the weather. Atmospheric G2 said Europe is experiencing its first major heatwave of the season, unusually strong for this time of year, with rising air-conditioning demand and elevated river temperatures raising operational concerns for France's nuclear fleet.
Meanwhile, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed EU gas storage remained well below last year's level. Stocks stood at 36.56% full on Tuesday, down from 44.71% a year earlier, underscoring the continued need for injections ahead of winter.
LNG flows to Europe have reduced since the onset of the trouble in the Middle East. Vortexa said Europe's LNG inflows have been constrained by narrow price spreads between the Northwest Europe LNG benchmarks and the TTF hub, as well as seasonal demand weakness. The firm noted that LNG demand across Europe remained subdued last week as warmer weather reduced heating needs and low margins discouraged imports.
Across the EU, LNG consumption averaged about 4,000 gigawatt-hours per day, around 5% below recent monthly averages, while imports totaled 2.2 million metric tons across 37 cargoes, broadly stable versus recent weeks, Vortexa said.
The analytics firm added that France's LNG intake was steady overall, with higher deliveries into Dunkirk offsetting maintenance-related outages at the Montoir terminal. In the UK, imports returned closer to seasonal norms as cooler conditions and replenishment of storage needs lifted demand.
Italy's LNG imports fell roughly 30% below recent averages, as forecasts for wetter conditions are expected to boost hydropower output and reduce gas-fired electricity generation. Turkey, meanwhile, recorded no LNG imports last week as persistently warm temperatures continued to suppress domestic gas consumption.
ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said ship-tracking data show total LNG arrivals in Europe fell further in the first half of May after a 7% year-on-year drop in April volumes. He added that cargoes are increasingly being redirected toward Asia, where supply constraints linked to Middle East tensions are more acute.
He also pointed to potential additional supply risks from Australia, where workers at Inpex's Ichthys LNG project are preparing for strikes and work stoppages next week, raising the prospect of further global production disruptions. Taiwan and Japan each rely on the facility for roughly 8% of their LNG imports.