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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Nearly 2% Amid Trump's Latest Warning to Iran

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European natural gas futures were up on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump warned Iran of consequences for failing to agree to a peace deal by now.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract was up 1.64% to 49.545 euros ($57.31) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was up 1.58% to 119.040 British pence ($1.59) per therm.

In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, Trump said Iran's military was in a "complete and total mess" and accused Tehran of taking too long to negotiate a deal with the US. He said a deal "would have been great for them," while adding that Iran would now "pay the price" instead.

This signals a fresh escalation in the conflict that has been raging for over three months, and comes just days after Trump said that a deal could be reached with Tehran over the next "two to three days."

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively shut for the 15th week running, with just two vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that European natural gas markets were on the edge "as global LNG flows to the region have slowed in recent weeks."

He attributed this to rising gas imports by China and India in recent weeks. Hynes also warned about additional supply constraints from the workers' strike at the Ichthys LNG plant in Australia, "which accounts for 2% of the world's output."

This comes at a time when European gas inventories are already depleted, at just 42.79% of capacity, compared to 51.40% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 57.1% of capacity, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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