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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as Middle East Risks, LNG Supply Constraints Persist

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European natural gas futures rose in after-hours trading as markets weighed developments in Middle East peace efforts and high-level discussions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract gained 1.535% to 47.64 euros ($55.62) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month rose 1.704% to 116.99 British pence ($1.57) per therm.

Investing.com reported that some analysts believe Trump could seek to involve China, one of the largest importers of Iranian oil, as a potential guarantor in any longer-term peace framework, though Beijing's willingness to take on such a role remains uncertain.

Supply risks continue to underpin sentiment. The near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has curtailed roughly one-fifth of global LNG flows, with shipping effectively constrained by both sides of the conflict. While most Gulf exports typically flow to Asia, the disruption has tightened global LNG availability, intensified competition for cargoes, and increased Europe's vulnerability ahead of the winter storage season, according to Trading Economics.

Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed EU gas storage at 35.72% of capacity, down from 43.10% a year earlier.

Brussels Signal reported that reaching typical pre-winter storage targets would require an increase of 45.7 percentage points within five months, implying roughly 130 LNG cargoes per month, around 10 more than in 2024.

Citing consultancy Tempos Energia, Brussels Signal said that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June, the first LNG cargoes could reach Europe by late July. Under that scenario, inventories could climb to 70%-75% of capacity before the heating season, above critical levels but still below the five-year average.

However, if the strait remains closed, the consultant reportedly warned that June could mark a "first breaking point," with Dutch TTF prices potentially ranging from 52 to 62 euros/MWh.

ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said North Asian LNG prices have also edged higher as stalled US-Iran talks weigh on expectations for supply stability, adding to global competition for cargoes and reinforcing upward pressure across benchmark gas markets.

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