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Argentina's Vaca Muerta Attracts Fresh Investment as Neuquen Launches Bid Round, Rystad Says

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Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale play is poised to attract renewed upstream investment as breakevens remain globally competitive and export infrastructure continues to expand, as a new bidding round is expected to draw both international and domestic operators, Rystad Energy analysts said in a Thursday note.

The province of Neuquen, through state-owned company Gas y Petroleo del Neuquen, is offering 15 exploration and production blocks across the Vaca Muerta formation in a licensing round designed to spur new acreage development.

The blocks span the full geological extent of the play, from condensate-rich zones in the northwest through oil-prone areas in the northeast and into more frontier acreage in the south. Rystad Energy predicts that crude production from the basin will reach more than 1 million barrels per day by 2030.

"Argentina is offering international companies their best organic entry point into Vaca Muerta in a decade. The basin is maturing fast, infrastructure is being built at pace, and the bid terms are designed to attract operators who can bring North American shale expertise to bear. For anyone who missed the first wave, this is the knock on the door they have been waiting for," said Rystad analyst Jai Singh.

Rystad Energy said recent activity in Argentina's shale sector has been driven largely by asset transactions and farm-ins rather than new acreage awards, but momentum has strengthened following major deals, including US shale operator Continental Resources acquiring a 90% stake in the Los Toldos II Oeste block and later entering a farm-in arrangement with Pan American Energy.

The consultancy estimates breakeven costs across the most prospective blocks range from $32 to $49 per barrel, placing Vaca Muerta among the most cost-competitive shale developments globally.

Bidding terms include carried working interest contributions to GyP, royalty offers above a 15% floor, committed work programs, and access bonuses. Each block carries a minimum bid requirement of $500,000.

Rystad expects local operators to remain highly competitive due to existing infrastructure, subsurface expertise, and adjacency to producing assets, which reduce both cost and execution risk.

However, it cautioned that new entrants will face significant geological complexity, particularly in structurally deformed areas, where faulting, stress regimes, and landing-zone variability require advanced technical capabilities. The firm also highlighted that establishing a strong operational footprint and supply chain in Neuquen will be critical.

Rystad added that Vaca Muerta's well productivity already rivals leading US shale basins on a normalized basis, while Argentina's expanding midstream network is increasingly positioned to support higher export volumes as development accelerates.

"Vaca Muerta's well productivity already rivals the best of the US Permian Basin on a normalized basis, and Argentina has spent the last several years quietly building the pipelines and export terminals needed to turn that geology into global supply. This bid round is the moment that the world's most important non-US shale play formally invites the world in," Singh added.

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