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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Heat, Tight Storage

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European natural gas futures rose in after-hours trade on Tuesday, as persistent heat across Europe and low storage levels became the dominant price drivers.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract gained 2.485% to 43.675 euros ($49.85) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month rose 2.428% to 105.050 British pence ($1.39) per therm.

Mind Energy said the impact of the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz has diminished compared with past disruptions, as weather-driven demand and weak storage conditions outweigh external supply-risk headlines.

Weather forecasts are again in focus. The Irish Times reported that another heat surge is expected to hit western Europe in early July. Italian meteorologist Luca Mercalli reportedly said temperatures could rise again from July 5-6, affecting France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and parts of the UK.

That renewed heat is expected to lift cooling demand and further complicate storage injections. Trading Economics estimated EU gas storage is about 48% full, warning that inventories could head into winter at their lowest level in roughly 15 years.

Despite Tuesday's gains, prices remain under broader pressure. Investing.com data show European gas is still on track for a monthly decline of more than 5% and a quarterly drop of about 14%.

However, ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said renewed concerns around shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz add price support. He noted Qatar temporarily suspended some maritime activity, while exempting vessels under international conventions, contributing to higher LNG price sensitivity in Asia as well.

Vortexa data showed LNG deliveries into Europe fell to 1.4 million tonnes across 30 cargoes, the weakest weekly level since summer 2024. France saw particularly low inflows, while Poland recorded a rare week without LNG imports. Spain's receipts also fell to year-to-date lows.

Shell said the crisis in the Middle East temporarily removed around 15 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from global supply at its peak. It added that LNG benchmarks in Asia and Europe peaked at $21.63/MMBtu and $18.33/MMBtu respectively, during the episode but remained well below 2022 extremes, when Dutch TTF prices surged above $70 per MMBtu.

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