FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Conflicting US-Iran Ceasefire Reports

By

European natural gas futures continued to rise in after-hours trading on Wednesday, as conflicting reports over the status of a reported ceasefire extension between the US and Iran added to market uncertainty.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures rose 2.869% to 60.420 euros ($69.66) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures climbed 3.037% to 148.600 British pence ($2.01) per therm.

Conflicting diplomatic reports and denials around reports of an extension of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire agreement kept prices high. Pakistani mediators said they had secured a breakthrough agreement to extend the truce ahead of an Aug. 17 deadline, while senior Iranian officials denied that any talks on an extension had taken place.

Market concerns were also heightened after a senior adviser to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps told PBS News on Tuesday that Iran could "prolong" its war with the US until President Donald Trump leaves office.

Meanwhile, hot weather across Europe is also supporting gas demand by boosting electricity consumption for cooling. Gas-fired power generation has risen by about a third on average in several western European countries this summer compared with recent years, as repeated heatwaves have curtailed nuclear output and reduced hydropower resources, Montel reported on Wednesday.

The weather outlook could provide some relief. Atmospheric G2 said in a social media post Wednesday that cooler and windier conditions are expected to move into Europe next week, bringing a more unsettled weather pattern.

Still, analysts expect European gas prices to maintain a firm floor until storage levels show clearer signs of building ahead of the winter heating season, Trading Economics reported.

European gas inventories stood at 59.40% of capacity, well below 72.01% at the same point last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Inventories were also below the five-year average of 76.2% for this period, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine's gas infrastructure this week, but Ukraine is expected to meet its storage targets, reducing the prospect of additional EU import requirements, Montel reported Wednesday.

Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed Ukrainian gas storage facilities were 30.5% full on Wednesday.

Related Articles

Commodities

US Appeals Court Voids Biden-Era Efficiency Standards for Stoves, Cooktops

A federal appeals court on Tuesday set aside a Biden-era rule imposing energy-efficiency standards on consumer cooking appliances, ruling the US Energy Department improperly retained the measure after adverse comments.The 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals granted a petition from Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas and Utah, which challenged the Department of Energy's Direct Final Rule for stoves and cooktops.The DOE issued the rule in February 2024 under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, setting limits on annual appliance energy use and banning linear power supplies in covered products.The court said the DOE improperly used a direct final rule despite opposition to similar standards from numerous states.The court said the Department failed to account for whether the standard's increased complexity could reduce reliability or increase associated costs.Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham said the Energy Department should not have fast-tracked the rule after knowing numerous states opposed a similar 2023 effort to impose efficiency standards.Oldham also criticized the Biden administration's approach to the rule, saying it could make home appliances "more expensive and less useful," while noting that direct final rules typically address uncontroversial matters.The US Department of Energy did not immediately reply to' request for comment.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall on Record Storage Forecast

US natural gas futures extended losses in after-hours trade on Tuesday from a two-week high after the US Energy Information Administration forecast that storage inventories would reach their highest level in a decade before the official start of winter.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both declined by 1.65% to $2.748 per million British thermal units.Prices gave up early gains after the EIA projected US natural gas inventories would reach 3,985 billion cubic feet by the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average.The projected inventory surplus reflects strong domestic production and some reduction in LNG feedgas demand because of maintenance at export terminals, the EIA said.The agency also lowered its forecast for the Henry Hub spot price, saying it expects prices to average $2.87/MMBtu in the third quarter of 2026, down 50 cents from its July Short-Term Energy Outlook. The lower forecast reflects reduced LNG feedgas demand and robust natural gas production.The EIA expects prices to remain below $3/MMBtu in the coming months as near-record storage levels weigh on the market heading into October.Price action farther out on the futures curve was largely flat, reflecting little change in the broader market outlook, the Energy Buyers' Guide said. Nearby contracts have recovered somewhat from last week's lows, but ample inventories and strong domestic production continue to cap upside, it said.Near-term weather forecasts offered additional support to prices. The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that above-normal temperatures are expected across the southern US from Aug. 16-20, potentially boosting demand for natural gas used to generate electricity for air conditioning.Natural gas prices also continued to factor in the news that Energy Transfer said the Hugh Brinson pipeline would be able to operate at its full transportation capacity of 1.5 billion cubic feet per day by Sept. 1. The expanded capacity will allow more gas to flow from the Permian Basin to the US benchmark Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, adding to already strong domestic supply.US natural gas production remained robust at about 112 Bcf/d, up 2.3% from the same period last year, Barchart said, citing BNEF data.Domestic demand stood at 82.3 Bcf/d on Tuesday, slightly below year-earlier levels, while LNG feedgas flows were steady at 17.6 Bcf/d, down 1.3% from last week.

Commodities

US Crude Oil Inventories Rise, API Says

Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories increased by 9.07 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 7, following a 2.69-mmbbl increase the previous week, and compared with analysts' estimate of a 500,000-bbl decline, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.