European natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trade on Thursday, following two days of declines, as uncertainty over the restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and fresh disruptions to France's nuclear fleet raised concerns about supply and winter storage levels.
Front-month Dutch TTF futures rose 4.303% to 68.450 euros ($79.77) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures gained 4.428% to 168.150 British pence ($2.29) per therm.
On the geopolitical front, Qatar's prime minister met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on Thursday to discuss an emerging agreement between Oman and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The visit followed trips to Iran this week by Pakistani and Omani officials as regional diplomatic efforts intensified.
Trading Economics cautioned that Tehran stressed the talks did not imply an immediate reopening of the waterway and warned that the strait would remain closed unless the US ended the war, underscoring uncertainty over when supply conditions might improve.
In Europe, persistent heat continued to disrupt the energy sector and drive demand for natural gas as a replacement for lost nuclear generation.
Most recently, the heat contributed to a mass influx of jellyfish that forced EDF to shut down three reactors at the Gravelines nuclear power plant in northern France, one of Europe's largest nuclear facilities, after the jellyfish clogged water intake systems, multiple news outlets reported.
Several dozen tons of jellyfish choked the plant's pumping stations, prompting the shutdown of reactors 3, 4 and 6. Reactors 1 and 2 continued operating at reduced power as a precaution. Montel reported that the French utility cut output by 3.2 gigawatts at the 5.5-GW nuclear plant.
The additional gas demand made it more difficult to replenish European inventories ahead of winter, during an injection season already facing multiple challenges.
European gas storage inventories stood at 63.54% of capacity, compared with 76.24% during the corresponding period a year earlier, Gas Infrastructure Europe said. Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average of 80.8% for this point in the year, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.
On the import side, a cold winter combined with continued supply constraints could push European gas prices to between 90 and 120 euros/MWh, CNBC reported Thursday.
CNBC said Goldman Sachs, in a note published Sunday, estimated that if Middle East LNG exports "normalize only gradually through 2027," natural gas futures would need to rise above 100 euros/MWh to reduce Asian demand sufficiently for Europe to manage its storage levels through the winter.