FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rally Amid Israel Strikes Lebanon, Iran Tightens Grip on Hormuz

By

European natural gas futures witnessed a sharp rally on Friday, after Israel continued its strikes against Lebanon, just hours after the interim peace deal between the US and Iran.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract was up 4.31% to 42.270 euros ($48.46) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was up 4.82% to 101.350 British pence ($1.34) per therm.

Both Dutch TTF and UK gas were set to end the week down by 10% and 10.05%, respectively, according to Trading Economics.

Despite calls for a ceasefire under the memorandum signed by the US and Iran on Thursday, Israeli military operations in Lebanon continued.

Lebanon's National News Agency reported that a series of airstrikes and artillery attacks killed at least 16 people and injured several others, underscoring the fragile security situation despite broader efforts to de-escalate tensions across the region.

Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, began returning to normal traffic, while still being heavily constrained for the 16th week running, with nearly 17 vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

On Friday, Iran's newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority said in a post on X that vessels may pass through the Strait without fees during the 60-day negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

It also said that vessels looking to cross the crucial waterway should submit a request 48 hours before their voyage, so that the Strait Authority can ensure safe passage, amid mine-ridden waters.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that Qatar has brought an empty LNG tanker back into the Persian Gulf, through the conflict-ridden Strait for the first time since the crisis began in late February.

Hynes said that this reopening stands to help Europe and "Germany in particular," as the region scrambles to replenish depleted gas inventories ahead of the next winter heating season. He said the region was facing heightened competition from Asia, as warmer temperatures pushed demand higher.

European gas inventories currently stand at 45.56% of capacity, down from 54.38% in the same period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 59.9%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Futures Hold Steady as Hormuz Tanker Traffic Resumes After US-Iran Deal

Crude futures were little changed in after-hours trading on Thursday as the US-Iran peace deal came into effect and tankers began transiting the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of prolonged disruption in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 0.3% to $76.56 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 0.2% to $79.34/bbl.US Central Command lifted its blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas on Thursday."American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman," Centcom said in a social media post on X, adding, "All US military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased."On Thursday, Vice President J D Vance, in a press briefing at the White House, said that 12.5 million barrels of crude had passed through the Hormuz as of Wednesday night, after the presidents of the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.The framework agreement sees the two sides commit to further talks over the next 60 days and offers Iran major financial relief, including the ability to immediately resume oil sales and the reopening of Hormuz.Meanwhile, President Trump refuted reports that the US would make a $300 billion payment to Iran in a social media post on Thursday, labeling the reports as "fake news," saying Washington was seeing "success" and lower oil prices.Four Saudi Arabian supertankers that had been idling in the Indian Ocean for weeks moved toward the Gulf of Oman, signaling that producers are preparing for a gradual resumption of crude shipments through the Strait.The vessels, owned by Saudi Arabia's Bahri, made sharp course adjustments early Thursday, according to media reports.The latest data from MarineTraffic shows that three laden Bahri-operated tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months also exited the strategic waterway earlier in the day.Three laden Saudi-flagged Very Large Crude Carriers have reappeared on AIS after over two months of being dark, indicating tanker operators are cautiously restoring visibility through the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime data platform said in a post on X on Thursday.Saxo Bank strategists said that an estimated 100 million barrels of crude and refined products are already loaded on tankers and waiting to leave the Gulf, while regional producers are taking steps to restart shut-in production.On the demand side, OPEC projected that oil demand will reach 113.3 million barrels per day in 2030 and 124.1 million b/d by 2050, up from 105.1 million barrels in 2025. The producer cartel's forecast contrasts with that of the International Energy Agency, which expects global supply to surge by 8 million b/d and demand to rise by just 2 million b/d.

Oil & Energy

US Ethane Exports Reach Record Levels as LPG Shipments Ease, Vortexa Says

US ethane exports climbed to record levels in June, reaching about 900,000 barrels per day, while Liquefied Petroleum Gas shipments slowed as exporters redirected terminal capacity, Vortexa analysts said Thursday.The Energy Information Administration reported US ethane production at a record 3.35 million b/d in March 2026.Strong supply lifted seaborne exports, with the 28-day moving average reaching 900,000 b/d by June 16, according to the analysis.Export terminals with flexible loading capacity prioritized ethane cargoes to meet contractual commitments.Rising volumes through Enterprise's Neches River Terminal also suggest its phase two expansion has entered service.The project added capacity for 180,000 b/d of ethane, 360,000 b/d of propane, or a combination of both. Meanwhile, preliminary data showed US LPG exports eased to about 2.7 million b/d during June 1 to June 16 from a record 2.9 million b/d in May.Despite the monthly slowdown, US LPG exports remained well above 2025 levels as buyers in India and Indonesia sought replacement supplies following disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Additional US cargoes helped global seaborne LPG imports recover to about 4.8 million b/d during June 1 to June 25, exceeding March levels of roughly 4.7 million b/d. The US supplied nearly 3 million b/d, or 64% of total imports, according to Vortexa.Vortexa analysts expect US exports to remain robust after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding reopened the Strait of Hormuz, with support from term contracts signed during the disruption.Improving Middle East supply, however, could narrow US-Asia arbitrage opportunities, weigh on US Gulf freight rates and support Middle East Gulf vessel demand.

Oil & Energy

Peace Deal Could Lift Fuel Consumption Outlook as Supply Flows Resume, Kpler Says

A US-Iran peace deal could limit the 2026 oil demand decline to about 700,000 barrels per day from the 1.2 million b/d drop Kpler projected earlier this month, the consultancy said Thursday.The US and Iran are expected to sign a deal on June 19, allowing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume.Kpler still expects supply to recover gradually, with flows improving through July and normalizing by October.Analysts said demand risks now lean higher because supply disruptions and higher energy prices drove most of the recent weakness.Faster supply restoration and lower crude prices could further strengthen consumption.Liquefied petroleum gas demand increased by 190,000 b/d in 2025, while Kpler had expected another 300,000 b/d increase in 2026 before the conflict. It now forecasts a decline of about 200,000 b/d, led by India and China.India relied on the Middle East for over 90% of its liquefied petroleum gas imports in 2025, leaving demand vulnerable to supply disruptions.At the same time, feedstock shortages forced Chinese propane dehydrogenation plants to cut operating rates, Kpler said.Kpler sees upside of 200,000 b/d to 300,000 b/d in the second half of 2026 liquefied petroleum gas demand if Hormuz reopens quickly.India could benefit first as authorities prioritize cargoes needed for domestic supply security, Kpler added.Naphtha demand fell by 40,000 b/d in 2025 and could drop another 200,000 b/d in 2026, marking a 330,000 b/d downgrade from February forecasts.China, South Korea and Japan recorded the deepest losses amid petrochemical feedstock shortages, Kpler said.Kpler estimates naphtha demand fell by 900,000 b/d over the year in May, the weakest month of the downturn. An upward revision of 80,000 b/d is estimated in H2 2026 if Middle East supplies gradually return.Gasoline demand rose by 330,000 b/d in 2025, but Kpler now expects a decline of about 20,000 b/d in 2026, a reduction of roughly 130,000 b/d from pre-conflict forecasts.Higher pump prices, supply shortages and conservation measures weakened gasoline use, while China's expanding electric vehicle fleet accelerated demand erosion. Kpler expects demand to remain soft through Q3 2026.A peace agreement could lift gasoline demand forecasts by 100,000 b/d to 150,000 b/d in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 as supplies improve and retail fuel prices ease, according to Kpler.Jet fuel demand increased by 260,000 b/d in 2025, but Kpler projects a 100,000 b/d decline in 2026.It cut Q2 and Q3 forecasts by 500,000 b/d and 380,000 b/d, respectively, citing route disruptions and higher fuel costs.Kpler expects airlines in the Middle East and Asia to bear the greatest impact, while Europe, particularly the UK and France, and parts of Africa also face pressure due to dependence on Gulf fuel supplies.Diesel demand grew by 260,000 b/d in 2025 but could fall by about 230,000 b/d in 2026. Kpler estimates Q2 demand dropped 740,000 b/d over the year as disruptions hit Asia, Europe and Africa.Asia led the decline as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz constrained supplies, while higher prices and slowing industrial activity pressured demand across Europe and Africa, where dependence on Gulf imports left consumers particularly exposed, Kpler said.A US-Iran peace deal could lift diesel demand by about 300,000 b/d from August through year-end as fuel supplies recover, prices ease from Q2 highs and industrial activity gradually improves, according to Kpler.Kpler views the shock as temporary and expects recovery to begin in Q4 2026. Even so, refined products demand may not reach 103 million b/d until after 2027 as elevated prices, inventory rebuilding and trade rerouting slow the rebound.