European natural gas futures ended mixed in after-hours trading on Tuesday, as geopolitical escalation in the Middle East reversed earlier expectations of easing risk premiums.
The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 3.533% to 47.035 euros ($54.68) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract fell 3.554% to 114.26 British pence ($1.54) per therm.
Optimistic market sentiment was disrupted after renewed US military action against Iranian targets dampened hopes for a near-term de-escalation in regional conflict. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it retains the right to respond to what it called violations of a ceasefire following US strikes on missile sites and vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington characterized the strikes as self-defense actions, according to news outlets.
Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran remains ongoing over a memorandum of understanding, but talks are reportedly stalled over language tied to Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief. CNN reported that US President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David on Wednesday to review the situation.
The latest military actions pushed Dutch gas prices off a two-week low, Trading Economics said.
Rising prices make restocking European inventories ahead of winter more difficult. EU gas inventories are stuck at 38.21% of capacity, compared with 46.31% a year earlier, underscoring a slower-than-normal refill trajectory.
Helpfully, Ukraine's energy regulator on Tuesday approved lower gas storage tariffs and updated EU-aligned market rules to accelerate storage injections.
However, weather dynamics are adding another layer of uncertainty. Parts of Europe are already experiencing record-breaking heat, potentially raising short-term cooling demand. Atmospheric G2 said in a Tuesday social media post that Europe is likely to trend warmer into June, with some model simulations indicating a faster shift toward hotter, drier conditions.
That pattern carries broader energy-system implications. Higher temperatures typically lift electricity demand through air-conditioning use, while potentially weakening wind output. Solar generation tends to improve under sunnier skies.
Hydropower output could also come under pressure if river flows decline, with low water levels adding stress to river systems throughout the month.
Overall, weather forecasts indicate tighter, more volatile energy conditions if warmer, drier weather patterns materialize alongside persistent geopolitical risk to gas supply routes.