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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Prices Down on Hormuz Talks

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European natural gas futures pared earlier losses in after-hours trading on Wednesday but still traded lower as markets tracked developments around the Strait of Hormuz and assessed broader supply and storage risks.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract declined by 2.669% to 46.205 euros ($53.74) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract fell 1.925% to 113.10 British pence ($1.52) per therm.

Shipping data and media reports indicated another LNG tanker from Abu Dhabi has transited the Strait of Hormuz en route to India, signaling improved energy flows through the strategic waterway despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. The vessel reportedly loaded cargo at Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.'s Das Island export facility without broadcasting its position. Satellite tracking has shown continued tanker activity at Das Island even as vessels intermittently go dark near the terminal, news outlets reported.

Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed EU gas inventories at 38.52% of capacity as of Wednesday, compared with 46.60% a year earlier.

Analysts at Timera Energy noted that the forward futures prices curve still offers limited incentive for traders to inject gas into storage, with pricing implying expectations of easing geopolitical risk later in 2026. That structure is discouraging restocking activity, while government intervention is seen as unlikely after losses incurred during intervention programs in the 2022 energy crisis. Persistent low storage levels could leave Europe exposed to elevated prices next winter if refill rates do not improve.

Weather conditions are adding further pressure on the effort to boost inventory levels.

French meteorological group Keraunos said in a social media post that several hundred monthly heat records were broken across Europe on Tuesday, while forecasters warned of an increasing likelihood of hot, dry conditions returning in June.

Atmospheric G2 said in a social media post that extended higher temperatures could boost electricity demand for cooling, reduce wind generation, and strain hydro output and river systems, potentially increasing reliance on gas-fired power.

In industry news, the German state-owned importer SEFE announced an agreement to purchase 1 million tonnes of LNG per year from Canada's Ksi Lisims LNG project for 20 years. Deliveries are expected to begin in 2030. The deal adds to SEFE's existing long-term supply portfolio, which includes contracts with Venture Global, Argentina's Southern Energy SA, and Turkey's BOTAS, as European buyers continue to lock in future LNG volumes amid ongoing market volatility.

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