European natural gas futures pared gains in after-hours trading on Monday after rising more than 4.25% earlier in the session, as markets awaited a speech by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in which he is expected to outline sanctions on Iran that he has described as an "economic D-Day."
Front-month Dutch TTF futures rose 4.152% to 68.600 euros ($80.03) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures gained 3.777% to 168.720 British pence ($2.30) per therm.
Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference early Monday afternoon to announce sanctions against Iran that he reportedly described to CNBC as the greatest campaign of "coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world."
"At dawn begins an economic D-Day - the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary," Bessent said in an opinion piece he authored in The Financial Times on Sunday.
Last week, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose sanctions on countries that continue trading with Tehran. Iran dismissed the threats as a sign of desperation, saying the new sanctions would fail to defeat Tehran.
Ongoing tensions between the two sides have kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, delaying Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe. The disruption, combined with heatwave-driven cooling demand, has slowed the pace of inventory replenishment and left European storage levels under greater pressure ahead of winter.
Gas inventories across Europe stood at 61.68% of capacity, down from 75.35% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 79.9%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.
Europe would need more than 140 LNG vessel arrivals per month to raise gas storage levels to 80% by the start of November, Envirotec said, citing a Montel report.
Montel's modeling reportedly suggests European storage will reach between 69% in its low case and 84% in its high case by Nov. 1, depending on injection rates and LNG availability. That would leave the European Union's 90% storage target out of reach, Montel said.
The Armchair Trader said Europe received an average of just 105 LNG cargoes per month between May and July, resulting in a shortfall of roughly 72 cargoes. That is equivalent to about 72 terawatt-hours of gas that could otherwise have been stored, it said.
The supply pressure is increasingly global, with Europe competing not only with neighboring markets but also with Asia, where buyers are often willing to pay more for LNG.