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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Mixed as US-Iran Talks Reach Stalemate After Trump's Comments

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European natural gas futures were mixed on Tuesday, as the prospects of a deal between the US and Iran continued to dim, with US President Donald Trump hardening his stance against the country.

Front-month Dutch TTF contracts advanced 0.05% to 60.800 euros ($70.12) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures dropped 0.40% to 149.120 British pence ($2.01) per therm.

In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump demanded compensation from Iran for "all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts."

This was in response to Tehran demanding compensation for Washington's violation of the MOU signed between the two countries in June, as one of the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, traffic along the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, stood at 14 on Monday, according to data from ShipFinder.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, warned that as the back-and-forth between the US and Iran continued to drag on, Europe was "running out of time" to refill its worn-down inventories ahead of the upcoming winter, with less than three months left.

European gas inventories stood at 59.12% of capacity, compared to 71.57% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 75.9%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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Trump Demands Iran Pay Damages, Says US Controls Strait of Hormuz

US President Donald Trump said Monday Iran should pay damages for past attacks and deaths, while reiterating the US Navy maintains 100% control of the Strait of Hormuz.Trump made the remarks while signing an executive order at the White House."We're going to ask for money for the damage they've done over a 50-year period...," Trump said, citing past attacks and victims, including the USS Cole and people who were hurt, wounded or killed.He said the US could also seek compensation for protesters killed in Iran, adding that families should receive damages for the deaths of their relatives. "... maybe damages for the 52,000 protesters over the last four months that were killed in Iran," Trump said.Trump said the US Navy now controls the Strait of Hormuz and allows selected vessels to pass through the waterway, while blocking ships from entering Iran."The only one that has control of the Strait of Hormuz right now is the United States Navy. We have a blockade that's been infallible," Trump said, describing the US blockade as "a steel wall."Trump said US forces have swept mines from the Strait of Hormuz, "... we've mine swept the entire Strait, ... we control the Strait 100%," he said.Asked whether a massive escalation against Iran remained on the table, Trump said the US retains the ability to take such action. "We have that... ability if we want to do that... you'll find out," he said.

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US Oil Update: Crude Surges as Iran-US Compensation Demands Raise Hormuz Uncertainty

Crude futures rallied in after-hours trading on Monday as renewed demands between Iran and the US for compensation for damages from the five-month conflict dimmed prospects for an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed by 5.3% to $82.30 per barrel, while Brent futures advanced by 5.2% to $87.61/bbl.Gelber & Associates said that Iran has tied renewed commercial passage to broad demands including sanctions relief and compensation, signaling that negotiations mediated by Oman remain far from a resolution.President Trump said on Monday that he will demand compensation from Iran for Americans killed and wounded in regional conflicts, as Iran seeks financial restitution for damages incurred during the recent five-month military conflict.Trump said that Iranian officials had raised the issue of compensation for war damages, even though he claimed the topic had not appeared in previous diplomatic meetings.In a separate post published shortly after, Trump blamed Iran for damages and deaths across the region. "Also, with respect to the Iran negotiations, Iran should be responsible for the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza," Trump posted.On Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baqaei, said that the US must lift its blockade before Tehran would agree to fully open Hormuz.Baqaei said that as long as the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, the necessary conditions for the reopening of the strategic waterway do not exist.The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on the realization of Iran's conditions, Baqaei said, adding that the US has no moral or legal standing to complain about the Strait of Hormuz not being open.ING strategists said that while President Trump said Washington is "semi-negotiating" with Iran, suggesting a focus on economic pressure rather than military escalation, significant hurdles remain before any broader agreement is reached.Fueling bullish sentiment, strikes across the region and in the Hormuz have also kept the market on edge. On Saturday, the UAE condemned an Iranian attack on a carrier linked to the country's state energy giant Adnoc while transiting the Hormuz.On Sunday, Yemen's Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery, further adding strain to an already tight global diesel market, as disruptions to shipments through Hormuz deepen the impact of Russia's fuel export ban.Saxo Bank strategists said that the risk of renewed Middle East escalation remains elevated, but the muted price response highlights competing headwinds from weak Chinese demand and the release of emergency reserves.Traffic through the Middle East energy chokepoints diverged over the weekend, with MarineTraffic data showing 32 confirmed crossings in the Hormuz between Aug. 7 and 9, while crossings via Bab el-Mandeb held steady at 116 confirmed crossings over the same period.

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Shipping Traffic via Hormuz Falls as Security Risks Persist

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