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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Mixed After US-Iran Continue to Trade Strikes

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European natural gas futures were mixed on Thursday, following the latest surge in hostilities between the US and Iran, which undermined hopes of a potential peace deal.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract was down 1.91% at 50.290 euros ($57.98) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was up 0.71% to 121.180 British pence ($1.62) per therm.

Both the US and Iran traded strikes yet again, with the US Central Command announcing attacks against several "Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites" on Wednesday, which posed threats to US forces and commercial vessels transiting regional waters.

The US Centcom also reported its third strike against a commercial vessel on Thursday, for attempting to violate its blockade against Iran, noting that US forces were acting "impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports."

Iran's IRGC Navy has said that it struck two vessels trying to illegally pass through the Strait, shortly after declaring its complete closure to commercial traffic, in retaliation over the US attacks, according to Iran's Mehr News Agency.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump revealed that the country's military had secretly conducted a mission to ensure the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

"More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait," he said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday.

The Strait, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively shut for the 15th week running, with just two vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, the interest in spot LNG purchases has continued to increase, especially from India, with five state-run refiners having issued tenders, or made purchases in recent weeks.

This comes at a time of comparatively low European gas inventories, at 43.10% of capacity, compared to 51.79% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 57.1%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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