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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall as Markets Bet on US-Iran Deal

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European natural gas futures fell in after-hours trading on Friday on hopes that a deal between the US and Iran was to be signed as early as this weekend, and remained down even after Washington and Tehran made conflicting statements about progress towards peace.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract dropped 4.14% to 47.635 euros ($55.11) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was down 4.72% to 114.110 British pence ($1.52) per therm.

Friday trade started on optimism about progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but prices rose again after US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Friday that Iran had inaccurately portrayed the terms discussed between the two sides. "The terms that Iran leaked out to the fake news have nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing," he posted on Truth Social.

An hour later, prices eased after he reposted a message from Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, who said, "The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content."

A signed agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz would help Europe restock its inventories ahead of winter.

European gas inventories remain comparatively low, at 43.36% of capacity, down from 52.12% in the same period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also well below the five-year average for this period at 57.6%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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