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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall After Trump Says US in Discussions With Tehran

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European natural gas futures were down on Wednesday, extending losses for the third consecutive session, amid negotiations between the US and Iran to potentially bring an end to the conflict between them.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract fell 2.52% to 54.510 euros ($62.94) per megawatt-hour, while the front-month UK NBP contract declined 2.38% to 133.530 British pence ($1.79) per therm.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US and Iran were having "very good discussions" throughout the day, during an interview with Fox News, even as Iranian officials denied this.

Trump also warned of dire consequences if Tehran backed out of talks again.

Meanwhile, in a post on X, the US Central Command said that the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz remained "free and open for all commercial vessels" despite unwarranted aggression by Iran.

Iran, however, has continued to discuss its own deal with Oman, with a senior diplomatic source remarking that only "one or two issues" remained unresolved, according to a report by Al Jazeera.

Traffic along the strait, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, was elevated on Tuesday, with 25 total transits, according to data from ShipFinder.

While these recent developments bode well for European markets, Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that the region's gas inventories were at their "lowest level for this time of the year since records began in 2009," even as the European Commission remained optimistic about winter LNG imports helping fill the gap.

European gas inventories stood at 57.66% of capacity, compared to 69.62% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 74.1%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

At the same time, a persistent heat dome is continuing expand across Central Europe and the Balkan Peninsula, with daytime temperatures expected to soar past 40 degrees Celsius through the first week of August, according to a report by Severe-Weather EU.

This will lead to heightened space cooling demand, along with gas-fired power demand across the region, especially with lower nuclear output resulting from low river levels that reduce cooling capacity.

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