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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Lower on Improving Hormuz Traffic, Qatar LNG Outlook

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European natural gas futures declined on Thursday as rising shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations eased concerns over potential LNG supply disruptions.

Front-month Dutch TTF contracts fell 0.61% to 40.62 euros ($46.23) per megawatt hour, while UK NBP futures slipped 0.31% to 96.88 British pence ($1.28) per therm.

Sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, "We're doing great in our negotiations with Iran," while rejecting fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping conditions continued to improve, with 25 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, indicating a further recovery in traffic through the critical energy corridor, according to Hormuz Strait Monitor.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia also weakened after Qatar said it expects to restore normal liquefied natural gas production within weeks from undamaged export facilities, although two production trains damaged by missile attacks will remain offline for the foreseeable future, Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ Bank, said.

European benchmark gas prices remained under pressure as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to normalize and Qatari LNG carriers returned to the Gulf for loading, easing fears of supply shortages ahead of winter, according to Trading Economics.

Despite slower inventory drawdowns due to warmer weather, EU gas storage remains low. Gas Infrastructure Europe reported inventories at 47.20%, down from 56.59% a year ago, with Germany at 39.23% and France at 48.11%.

Atmospheric G2 forecast cooler and more unsettled weather across France and Germany from the weekend, with temperatures expected to ease following the recent heat wave.

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Oil & Energy

Trump Says Iran Talks Progressing, Calls Hormuz Fees Unacceptable

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday negotiations with Iran are advancing and warned that any fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz would be "unacceptable."Trump made the remarks speaking alongside Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House."We're doing great in our negotiations with Iran," Trump said, expressing confidence in ongoing talks with Tehran and dismissing suggestions that recent political developments could affect the discussions.Asked whether he would support an agreement that imposed fees on vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, "It would be unacceptable," arguing that similar charges could encourage other countries to follow suit.Discussing the Iran conflict, Trump said the US did not receive the level of support it expected from allies, adding that while the US did not need help, it would have been "nice" if partners had offered assistance.Trump also credited Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping for staying out of the Iran conflict. He said both leaders honored his requests to avoid involvement, helping prevent a broader regional escalation.Trump said he has directed the Department of Justice to examine fuel pricing practices at major energy companies alleging price gouging by oil firms. He noted that retail gasoline prices have not fallen in line with declines in crude oil markets.He pointed to several energy majors including Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Shell (SHEL), BP (BP), among others. "... the gasoline or the oil prices have come down so much, and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison," Trump said.Trump said, "...we should be, in my opinion, at $2.25 right now at the pump, and we're higher than that, and we are doing a big investigation on it."He alleged that the companies are "possibly gouging," and warned, "I hope they're not. Otherwise, they're going to be in big trouble."The US President said about 19 million barrels of oil moved through global markets the previous day, describing the volume as "a flood" and citing it as evidence of strong supply conditions.Turning to UK energy policy, Trump urged British leaders to expand North Sea oil development and argued the country is failing to capitalize on a major resource opportunity. "You have the greatest oil field in the world, one of them, it's called the North Sea oil," Trump said.

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Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Plunges as More Oil Tankers Exit Strait of Hormuz

Crude oil futures plunged in after-hours trading on Wednesday, extending their decline to pre-war levels, as a resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran peace talks eased fears of a prolonged supply disruption in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled 4.3% to $70.05 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 4.9% to $73.32/bbl.Saxo Bank analysts said Brent crude slipped below $77/bbl, leaving prices less than 10% above pre-war levels, as tanker traffic through the Strait continues to normalize.US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.1 million barrels to 412.1 mmbbls in the week ended June 19, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories are now about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.Fuel inventories rose, with gasoline stocks rising by 2.1 million barrels last week, while distillate increased by 3.1 million barrels, the agency said.Gelber & Associates said the selloff in crude markets comes despite a supportive US inventory print, with commercial crude stocks drawing 6.1 mmbbls last week, as product builds and demand concerns kept the bullish impact limited.Meanwhile, the latest data from Kpler show that at least 20 oil tankers carrying 35 million barrels of oil have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, with 15 of them exiting the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Iran agreed to open the strategic waterway.More commercial vessels are transiting the strategic waterway with their satellite signals switched on, with Kpler strategists saying the Strait appears operational under the US-Iran MoU, but dark-route activity and uncertainty beyond the 60-day window keep the recovery cautious.Oman said it would keep the Hormuz open to shipping without imposing tolls and had designated two temporary routes, north and south of the existing shipping lane, to facilitate the safe passage of vessels leaving the region.The International Maritime Organization also said on Tuesday it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf.Oman said it would keep the Hormuz open to shipping without imposing tolls and had designated two temporary routes, north and south of the existing shipping lane, to facilitate the safe passage of vessels leaving the region.The International Maritime Organization also said on Tuesday it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf.

Oil & Energy

Wright Says Shipping Flow Through Hormuz is Near Normal, Highlights Record US Oil Output

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reached about 20 million barrels per day as shipping activity recovers following the interim US-Iran agreement, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday at a Reuters Global Energy Forum event."I could say roughly 72 ships in the last 24 hours, and 20 million barrels of oil, 19 million barrels of oil the day before," Wright said, according to a transcript of the event.He noted that oil and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered from recent disruptions, with "normal flows" through the Strait at present. "So, flow of oil out of the Arabian Gulf today is higher than it was before the conflict," Wright said.Iranian mines remain the main obstacle to fully restoring shipping routes, Wright said, estimating that demining operations are "probably a few weeks' effort" while noting that energy supplies and critical materials already have viable export pathways.Asked about the future security of the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of fees being imposed on vessels, Wright expressed confidence that Iran can no longer use the waterway as leverage."... Iran will not have the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz going forward," Wright said.He instead suggested an alternative solution. "The better solution is to have an agreement with the Iranians where they get some benefit, and we get a more permanent end to their nuclear program," Wright added.On the recent sanctions waiver, Wright said it means that Iran can now sell crude at "multiple places" and can be paid in dollars. Before the waiver, Iran mostly sold crude to China."It's a plus for Iran, but I would say it's not a giant plus. We haven't unfrozen any funds, they haven't got anything meaningful yet," Wright said.Wright said the administration approved about 80 million metric tons per annum of new liquefied natural gas export capacity, advanced federal lease sales and accelerated nuclear development.He said two advanced reactors recently reached criticality, the first such milestone in more than 40 years, with another expected before July 4.Long-term energy demand remains firmly supported by global living standards, Wright said. He noted that about 1 billion people consume roughly 13 barrels of oil per person annually, while the remaining 7 billion consume about three barrels each.Wright attributed recent oil-price resilience to stronger supply growth and a more supportive stance toward energy producers, noting that US oil production remains at record levels. "The United States, for the last two months, is the number one exporter of oil in the world," Wright said.The Strategic Petroleum Reserve swap program will return more crude than it releases, Wright said."The swaps we've done so far average 1.28 barrels back for every one barrel we've released," Wright said, adding that the reserve will end up with 35 million to 40 million more barrels than it had when the program began.Wright said policy changes and cooperation with Venezuelan authorities have already doubled the country's oil exports.He added that exports could double again during the current administration, pushing shipments above 2 million barrels a day.Defending the administration's stance on renewable energy subsidies, Wright argued that power markets should reward reliability rather than intermittent generation. "After 35 years of subsidies, you got to walk on your own," Wright said.Wright also backed keeping existing coal plants online while adding nuclear, natural gas, geothermal and other generation sources to meet rising demand from artificial intelligence and data centers.The US Department of Energy did not immediately respond to' request for comment.