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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Higher on Fresh US-Iran Hostilities

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European natural gas futures were up on Wednesday after the latest US strikes against Iran, in response to a downed US helicopter.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract was up 0.26% to 48.870 euros ($56.45) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was up 0.26% to 117.50 British pence ($1.55) per therm.

In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump confirmed that a US Apache helicopter was shot down by Iranian forces when it was patrolling the Strait of Hormuz. Trump highlighted the necessity to "respond to this attack," marking a fresh escalation in the conflict.

According to the US Central Command, several "Iranian air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites" were struck in response to Tehran's aggression.

This comes just hours after Trump had signaled optimism regarding a potential deal with Iran, over the next "two to three days."

Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively shut for the 15th week running, with just two vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that European natural gas markets were on the edge "as global LNG flows to the region have slowed in recent weeks."

He attributed this to rising gas imports from China and India, which have been ramping up their spot purchases in recent weeks. Hynes also warned about additional supply constraints from the workers' strike at the Ichthys LNG plant in Australia, "which accounts for 2% of the world's output."

This comes at a time when European gas inventories are already depleted, at just 42.79% of capacity, compared to 51.40% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 57.1% of capacity, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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