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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Down on Crude Declines Despite Low Inventories

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European natural gas futures pared some losses in after-hours trading Thursday but remained lower, tracking declines in crude prices.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures fell 0.763% to 77.435 euros ($88.87) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures declined 0.031% to 193.510 British pence ($2.58) per therm.

Comments from US President Donald Trump helped soften geopolitical risk premiums and prompted profit-taking across commodity markets.

Trump was reported to have said the US was "toward the end of the war" with Iran and that Tehran wanted to reach a deal. He is also expected to meet with Middle Eastern leaders on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York next Tuesday, Axios reported.

Oil prices also declined after Saudi Arabia said it planned to quickly restore its damaged East-West pipeline, helping offset ongoing supply disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries.

Meanwhile, European gas markets remain supported by low inventories and a recent series of supply disruptions. Unplanned maintenance at Norway's Asgard and Troll gas fields and the Kollsnes processing plant, coupled with the shutdown of the Interconnector UK pipeline linking Britain and Belgium, tightened already snug regional supply, according to marine fuel intelligence platform ENGINE.

Maintenance in Norway and reduced Algerian flows to Italy are making progress more challenging, ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said.

Despite Thursday's decline, European gas prices remain near four-year highs as the region heads into winter with storage levels well below historical norms.

European gas storage facilities were 68.66% full, compared with 80.83% at the same point last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Inventories were also below the five-year average of 84.6%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Germany's storage position is tighter, with inventories at 55.95% of capacity, down from 75.62% a year earlier. The shortfall has prompted German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche to offer higher incentives for gas traders to direct additional volumes into the country.

What else is happening in Commodities?

Commodities

Farm Bill Clears Senate Committee, Setting Up Floor Vote on Year-Round E15

The US Senate Agriculture Committee voted Wednesday to move the Agricultural Act of 2026, also known as the Farm Bill, to the full Senate floor, including a provision allowing year-round sales of E15 gasoline.The bill now moves to the Senate floor for the full body to consider sometime before an October adjournment.The House passed year-round E15 legislation in May by a bipartisan 218-203 vote.The Renewable Fuels Association welcomed the move. "Today's passage of the farm bill by the Senate Agriculture Committee represents an important step toward finally securing nationwide, year-round E15," said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper."As expressed throughout the farm bill process, there is broad bipartisan support for making lower-cost E15 available to consumers all year long-especially at a time when pump prices are on the rise and fuel supplies are tightening," Cooper noted.A recent US Department of Energy report found that E15 has been selling for 47 cents per gallon less than standard E10 gasoline on average, for an 11.5% discount.Year-round E15 also has strong support from President Trump, according to the RFA.In a statement, the RFA said that in a supplemental funding request to Congress in June, the Trump administration requested, "... a fix that codifies the permanent, year-round sale of E15, an urgent and needed policy change that would expand consumer choice, support domestic fuel production, and provide additional flexibility in fuel markets."

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Slip Ahead of Smaller-Than-Normal Storage Build

US natural gas futures softened further in after-hours trading Wednesday as the market looked ahead to government data expected to show a smaller-than-normal increase in storage inventories.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract each fell 0.92% to $2.892 per million British thermal units.Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal expect the US Energy Information Administration to report a 48 billion cubic feet increase in natural gas inventories for the week ended Sept. 11, well below the five-year average build of 74 Bcf for the same week.As of Sept. 4, US natural gas inventories were 2.7% below year-earlier levels but 4.8% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating that overall supplies remained adequate.On the fundamentals side, warmer-than-normal temperatures are helping keep power burn elevated, while record domestic production continues, Pinebrook Energy Advisors said.Barchart, citing data from The Commodity Weather Group, said Wednesday that above-average temperatures are expected across the South and Southeast through Sept. 25. The warm late-summer temperatures are expected to support demand for natural gas from power generators as air-conditioning use continues into early autumn.Celsius Energy data showed a 0.9 Bcf increase in powerburn on Tuesday, putting Sept. 15 powerburn at 42.9 Bcf. For the week ended Tuesday, powerburn averaged 43.7 Bcf/d, up 4.8 Bcf/d from the same week a year earlier.Total US natural gas demand on Wednesday was pegged at 76.3 Bcf/d, up 2.4% year over year, Barchart said, citing BNEF data.On the supply side, US Lower 48 dry gas production remained strong at 112.3 Bcf/d on Wednesday, up 4.0% from a year earlier, Barchart said.Estimated net gas flows to US liquefied natural gas export terminals were 18.5 Bcf/d on Wednesday, down 4.7% from the previous week."LNG exports remain near 19 Bcf per day and are poised to show another leg of growth before the end of the year," Pinebrook Energy said.

Commodities

US Power Update: Prices Mostly Higher Wednesday Afternoon, 5 Regions Top $100/MWh

US wholesale electricity markets were mostly higher Wednesday afternoon, with five regions crossing the $100 per megawatt-hour mark, while Southwest Power Pool prices reached an intraday high of $1,398.56/MWh, according to GridStatus.io.Electric Reliability Council of Texas' real-time locational marginal price stood at $85.88/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 46.34 gigawatts, with natural gas making up the largest share of the generation mix at 37%. Prices rose to an intraday high of $142.56/MWh at 4:40 p.m. ET.California Independent System Operator's real-time LMP was $18.33/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load stood at negative 1.44 GW, while solar led the generation mix at 68.8%.SPP's real-time LMP was $113.13/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 41.12 GW, with natural gas making up the largest share of the generation mix at 45.3%. Prices surged to an intraday high of $1,398.56/MWh at 4:15 p.m. ET.PJM Interconnection's real-time LMP reached $382.46/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load stood at 108.17 GW, with gas providing the largest share of the generation mix at 46.3%. Prices climbed to an intraday peak of $401.99/MWh at 3:50 p.m. ET.Midcontinent Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came to $139.62/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 86.08 GW, while natural gas accounted for the largest portion of the generation mix at 34.3%. Prices peaked intraday at $341.36/MWh at 3:40 p.m. ET.New York Independent System Operator's real-time LMP stood at $77.61/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 19.03 GW, with natural gas supplying the largest share of the generation mix at 32.3%.ISO New England's real-time LMP was $44.99/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load came in at 12.18 GW, with natural gas representing the largest share of the generation mix at 47%.Independent Electricity System Operator's real-time LMP stood at $77.43/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 19.05 GW at 3:55 p.m. ET, with nuclear making up the largest share of the generation mix at 43%. Prices touched an intraday high of $110.55/MWh at 10:55 a.m. ET.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across most of the US from Sept. 24-30, with near-normal readings in parts of the West.