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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Ease as US Sanctions Deflate Risk Premium

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European natural gas prices fell in after-hours trade on Tuesday, easing from Monday's 3.5-year high, as a US economic sanctions package against Iran failed to trigger immediate global physical supply halts, easing near-term energy risk premiums.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures fell 2.722% to 66.460 euros ($77.57) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures dropped 3.43% to 162.430 British pence ($2.22) per therm.

Prices retreated from Monday's high of nearly 68.46 euros/MWh after the latest US measures against Tehran appeared less likely than expected to disrupt physical supplies, Trading Economics said.

Diplomatic efforts also eased some concerns, with Pakistan's army chief visiting Iran and Qatar continuing to support mediation between Tehran and Washington. Reports that the US could begin returning evacuated diplomats to the Middle East also suggested an immediate escalation may be less likely, media outlets reported.

Supply risks remain, however. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have constrained LNG deliveries from Qatar, while persistent hot weather is boosting demand for cooling, potentially making it harder for European countries to rebuild gas inventories ahead of winter.

European gas storage facilities were 62.99% full, down from 75.67% a year earlier, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Inventories were also below the five-year average of 80.2% for this period, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Meanwhile, Atlantic rates for large LNG carriers fell 80% in two weeks to $9,000 a day on Aug. 24, their lowest level since March 2025, Chemnet reported on Tuesday.

Weak shipping demand and an oversupply of available vessels are driving the decline, even as Europe needs to replenish storage. Cheaper freight could improve the economics of sending US LNG to Europe and Asia, Chemnet said, but added that the potential profit from storing and reselling gas remains too low to encourage more buying.

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