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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Down Over 2% After Trump Repeats Claim Iran War Near End

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European natural gas futures were down on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump signaled a potential end to the conflict in the Middle East, repeating previous unsubstantiated claims made over the course of the Iran war so far.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract was down 2.31% at 50.620 euros ($58.70) per megawatt hour, while the UK front-month NBP contract was down 2.52% to 123.460 British pence ($1.65) per therm.

On Tuesday, while addressing lawmakers at the White House's annual Congressional Picnic, Trump said that his administration was set to end the war "very quickly," while noting that even Tehran wanted to "make a deal so badly."

Vice President JD Vance echoed that sentiment, saying, "we think that we've made a lot of progress," while acknowledging lingering uncertainties and cautioning that it was difficult to draw firm conclusions until "we're actually putting pen to paper on signing a deal."

Tehran, however, has yet to confirm this stance and its latest statements do not appear to align with Trump's declaration.

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has issued a warning that any renewed aggression against the country would expand the conflict beyond the region, adding that Iran had not yet deployed all of its combat capabilities, according to Tasnim News Agency.

Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained closed for the 12th week running, with zero vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

Natural gas prices remained elevated in Europe, with new supply disruptions, such as operational issues at Malaysia's Bintulu LNG plant and the strike at Inpex's Ichthys LNG plant in Australia, weighing on supplies, according to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ.

This will make it tougher for Europe to replenish gas inventories now filled to 36.69% of capacity after a surprise withdrawal following weeks of injections. The figure compares to reserves of 44.71% of capacity one a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories are also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 50.4%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

On the weather front, just days after unseasonably cold temperatures, Europe is set to experience a late-May heatwave, as a heat dome takes shape across much of the continent, according to Severe-Weather EU.

Temperatures across Spain and Portugal are expected to reach mid-to-upper 30 degrees Celsius, giving rise to cooling demand across the region.

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