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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Decline Despite US-Iran Stalemate, Mounting Gas Supply Concerns

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European natural gas futures edged lower on Wednesday, despite the ongoing stalemate between the US and Iran, as concerns continued to mount over a potential winter gas supply crunch.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures dropped 0.87% to 63.090 euros ($73.21) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures declined 0.97% to 155.470 British pence ($2.11) per therm.

In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump denied any ongoing or scheduled talks with Tehran, while noting that the naval blockade against the country was "in full force and effect."

Earlier in the day, in another post, Trump had claimed the Strait of Hormuz as US territory, adding to the precariousness of the situation.

Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that the US was now "begging" to negotiate based on Iranian conditions, after failing to force Tehran to surrender, according to a report by Al Jazeera.

Traffic along the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, held steady at 12 transits on Tuesday, according to ShipFinder.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that continued disruptions along the Hormuz were hindering Europe's ability to refill inventories ahead of winter, which were currently at their "lowest seasonal level in records going back to 2009."

Hynes also highlighted alternative measures being explored by regional exporters to move their products out of the Persian Gulf, including ship-to-ship transfers outside the critical waterway.

European gas inventories stood at 61.37% of capacity, compared to 73.95% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 78.4%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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