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EMEA Natural Gas Update: European Gas Futures Jump 5% in Early Trade on Iran-Israel Escalation

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European natural gas futures jumped 5% in early Monday trade as the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel further escalated the Middle East conflict and dealt a blow to diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war, raising concerns of prolonged disruptions to energy supply flows.

Dutch TTF front-month contract rose 5% to 50.92 euros ($58.68) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract gained 5.36% to 123.32 British pence ($1.58) per therm.

Earlier in the session, Dutch TTF futures hit a near three-week high of about 51.2 euros per MWh, according to Trading Economics.

According to media reports, Israel on Monday reportedly said that said Iran carried out a second round of missile strikes targeting its territory. This follows Israeli strikes targeted sites in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan. On Sunday, Iran launched missiles at northern Israel in retaliation to the latter's attack on Beirut, Al Jazeera reported.

A prolonged disruption to energy flows from the Persian Gulf could increase competition for liquefied natural gas, even as European nations scamper to secure fuel to replenish its storage reserves before winter, Trading Economics said.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Friday that EU LNG imports increased from all major suppliers between March and May 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.

LNG imports from the US rose 5% year-on-year, while imports from Algeria increased 11%, Russia 25%, and Norway 84%, according to IEEFA data. The US accounted for 60% of the EU's LNG imports during the three-month period, up from 56% a year earlier.

The stronger inflow of LNG cargoes has helped bolster European supply, though traders remain focused on geopolitical risks and the pace of storage injections ahead of the winter heating season.

European gas storage levels stood at 42.12% of capacity as of early Sunday, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

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