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Eli Lilly Weight-Loss, Diabetes Franchise to Drive Second Quarter Sales Beat, RBC Says

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Eli Lilly Weight-Loss, Diabetes Franchise to Drive Second Quarter Sales Beat, RBC Says

Eli Lilly (LLY) is poised to outpace second-quarter sales consensus estimates as strong volume uptake of its weight-loss drug Zepbound and Mounjaro diabetes treatment drive franchise performance, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Wednesday.

The brokerage expects second-quarter revenue of $20.74 billion, ahead of its previous estimate of $20.32 billion and topping the $20.51 billion consensus. Zepbound sales during the quarter are expected to reach $4.81 billion against the $4.57 billion consensus, while Mounjaro revenue is expected to hit $9.34 billion compared with Wall Street estimates of $8.79 billion.

The strength in sales of these drugs will offset expected pricing headwinds and lower sales of older products including breast cancer treatment Verzenio, plaque psoriasis treatment Taltz and type 2 diabetes drug Trulicity, according to the note.

"(Most favored nation) pricing in Medicare remains in effect throughout 2026, predominantly weighing on late-lifecycle products including Taltz, Trulicity, Verzenio and Forteo," RBC analysts Trung Huynh and Justin Burns said.

The firm raised its price target on Lilly's stock to $1,500 from $1,250 due to "continued outperformance" of Mounjaro and Zepbound and increased earnings per share estimates for 2026 and 2027 to $37.10 and $49.33 from $36.24 and $42.89.

"With higher costs we are in line with consensus on (second quarter) earnings," Huynh and Burns wrote. "We anticipate another guidance raise, though not as much as the (first quarter) increase in sales or earnings per share."

The drugmaker is scheduled to report its second-quarter financial results Aug. 5.

Eli Lilly shares were down 0.4% in Wednesday trading and have gained 14% this year.

Price: $1237.64, Change: $+2.08, Percent Change: +0.17%

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