Dow (DOW) received a downgrade due to receding polyethylene prices, along with ongoing weak demand, slower GDP growth, and a $7.5 billion capital expenditure commitment for its Alberta cracker, RBC Capital Markets said Tuesday in a note.
Despite a price uplift in 2026, the fundamental earnings backdrop remains similar to that at the end of 2025, as no structural changes to supply and demand have materialized since the start of the Iran conflict, according to the note.
RBC believes risk is skewed to the downside on a reopening of Hormuz, and earnings could trend back to 2024 levels in 2027, the note added.
Despite the delay, the Alberta cracker project continues to weigh on capital allocation. With capex estimated at approximately $6 billion net of government incentives, up from about $5 billion previously, the project would likely consume most of Dow's free cash flow through 2030, the brokerage said.
RBC downgraded Dow to sector perform from outperform and lowered the price target to $28 from $51.
Price: $27.61, Change: $+0.25, Percent Change: +0.90%