Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are transitioning from temporary shocks into a structural new normal, forcing energy markets to adapt to elevated price ranges and alternate routes, ANZ Commodity Analyst Soni Kumari said in an interview with.
"Market will start living with this fact that the flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not normalize," Kumari said on Friday.
Kumari noted that while the broader energy market has proven surprisingly resilient, maintaining prices in the $85 to $87 range despite the five-month long closure of the crucial chokepoint, the underlying buffers that cushioned the initial phase of the crisis have now significantly eroded.
Commercial inventories have drawn down globally to offset Middle Eastern supply losses, and US export growth has begun to taper off.
US crude exports have weakened as domestic refiners absorb more barrels, with net exports nearing zero, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls to 298.7 million barrels, Kpler said.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 7, taking inventories below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983 and to a fresh 40-plus-year low.
At the same time, the crisis is reshaping midstream infrastructure and refining sectors worldwide.
Producers are increasingly looking to establish alternative export routes, such as expanded pipeline networks, to reduce high dependencies on vulnerable chokepoints.
Meanwhile, downstream markets face intense pressure, with severe tight spots across European and Middle Eastern product markets compounded by escalating attacks on energy facilities and refineries.
Kumari highlighted that while major buyers like China hold substantial strategic stockpiles that can cover roughly 100 to 120 days depending on usage and are unlikely to hit the panic button, their cautious purchasing behavior and steady import recovery will keep a floor under prices.
However, China's crude demand could return to the market sooner than expected as the growing gap between recovering refinery runs and suppressed imports makes current inventory drawdowns unsustainable, commodity analytics firm Kpler said in a note, last week.
"China's crude inventory drawdown is expected to accelerate as refinery runs recover while renewed supply risks constrain imports, potentially bringing forward the timing of a more meaningful return to crude buying," Kpler noted.
Looking ahead, ANZ expects the long-term legacy of the conflict to be a permanent recalibration of market expectations, with crude prices anchored in the $70-$80 range rather than falling back into the $50s.
While alternative flows from Latin America, Canada, and discounted barrels provide partial relief, investors and producers alike are increasingly prioritizing geopolitical security and legal stability over pure return on investment when allocating capital to new energy infrastructure, the analyst added.