FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

DexCom Medicare Coverage NCD Remains Biggest 2026 Catalyst, RBC Says

By

-- DexCom (DXCM) added record new patient starts globally in Q1, while the Continuous Glucose Monitoring National Coverage Determination remains the single biggest potential catalyst in 2026 and key driver of future growth, RBC Capital Markets said.

The brokerage said in a Thursday note that the US CGM penetration remains only around 30% of covered lives, leaving substantial room for growth even before any incremental coverage expansion.

DexCom reiterated its 2026 revenue guidance despite the Q1 beat being largely driven by foreign exchange. It also reaffirmed its 11% to 13% growth outlook, which includes about 100 basis points of contribution from Stelo, RBC said.

While investors remain focused on slowing U.S. growth, DexCom reported "very close to a record" new patient starts in the US, with sequential improvement supported by the 15-day G7 rollout and ongoing CGM adoption, the brokerage added.

RBC said the company's May 14 Investor Day is a key upcoming catalyst. It estimates 2026 revenue of $5.22 billion and EPS of $2.56, up 12% and 23% year over year, respectively.

The firm reiterated its outperform rating and a $85 price target on DexCom.

Price: $60.72, Change: $+1.17, Percent Change: +1.96%

Related Articles

Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Strong Sell Opinion On Shares Of Sna

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We trim our 12-month target to $325 from $330, as we revise our outlook lower following Q1 earnings. Our updated target values shares at 15.5x our 2027 EPS outlook of $21.12 (down from $21.28; 2026 EPS updated to $19.63 from $19.91), in line with SNA's long-term historical multiple average but below industrial machinery peers. Our Strong Sell view is unchanged following SNA's Q1 print. Margin contraction seen in the first quarter is not an existential threat for SNA, though we believe that earnings growth will be largely limited without underlying profitability inflecting higher. Tariffs and rising material costs ate into SNA's bottom-line during Q1, though organic sales growth was more of a positive. Demand headwinds with OEM dealerships contributed to our revision in EPS growth assumptions for 2026 and 2027, with Repair Systems now set to be less of a contributor to organic sales expansion, in our view.

$SNA
US Markets

Cava Could Beat Quarterly Same-Store Sales Views, Lift 2026 Outlook Amid Continued Momentum, RBC Says

Cava Group's (CAVA) first-quarter same-store sales are expected to top Wall Street's estimates amid continued momentum, which could prompt the company to raise its full-year outlook, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Friday.The brokerage projects the fast-casual restaurant chain's same-store sales for the quarter to rise 6%, while the Street is looking for 5.9% growth, according to the RBC note to clients. Cava is scheduled to report results May 19."Thus far this earnings season, restaurant winners (and) losers have largely been defined by sensitivity to (the Middle East) conflict-related macro headwinds," RBC analyst Logan Reich said. "For Cava, we don't think their traffic is materially impacted, where their relatively high-income consumer exposure should insulate them from higher gas prices."Energy prices have jumped as the US-Israel war with Iran has curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The war, which started at the end of February, paused following a recent ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, though a framework for a permanent truce is yet to be reached.US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.392 per gallon Friday, compared with $3.187 a year ago, according to data from AAA, a travel organization that tracks fuel prices in the country.Cava started the year with comparable sales momentum, which could continue through 2026 amid "menu innovation, digital improvements, and easing compares," Reich said. These factors could help drive upward revisions to the company's own full-year outlook for same-store sales to grow between 3% and 5%, which the brokerage said was "conservative."RBC raised its price target on Cava's stock to $100 from $90 with an outperform rating.The company's shares were down 2.5% in Friday late-afternoon trade. So far in 2026, the stock has surged 56%.Despite the shares' significant year-to-date outperformance, RBC said it's leaning "constructive" into Cava's upcoming results."We theorize there's potential consumer reversion towards the fast-casual category this year, as consumers could increasingly prioritize healthier (and) wellness, which Cava should benefit from, following a material slowdown across the category in (2025) as quick-service chains took share driven by incremental value offerings," Reich said.Price: $91.09, Change: $-2.33, Percent Change: -2.49%

$CAVA
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed late Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) rising 0.6%.In sector news, Spirit Airlines failed to secure sufficient support from certain bondholders and the federal government for a $500 million lifeline, The Wall Street Journal reported. As a result, the airline is preparing to cease operations, the report said.In corporate news, Colgate-Palmolive (CL) shares rose 1.8% after the company reported Q1 results that topped analysts' expectations.The United Auto Workers union intends to hold a vote next week over whether to strike at a Stellantis (STLA) pickup truck factory in Suburban Detroit, Bloomberg reported, citing a UAW podcast. Stellantis shares were down 1.6%.Newell Brands (NWL) raised its 2026 sales outlook, crediting tax refunds, operational improvements, and better-than-expected consumer demand. Its shares jumped past 9%.Estee Lauder (EL) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Friday as the cosmetics company said it aimed to lay off more staff than previously planned as part of an ongoing restructuring program. Its shares rose 2.4%.

$CL$EL$NWL$STLA