DexCom (DXCM) added record new patient starts globally in Q1, while the Continuous Glucose Monitoring National Coverage Determination remains the single biggest potential catalyst in 2026 and key driver of future growth, RBC Capital Markets said.
The brokerage said in a Thursday note that the US CGM penetration remains only around 30% of covered lives, leaving substantial room for growth even before any incremental coverage expansion.
DexCom reiterated its 2026 revenue guidance despite the Q1 beat being largely driven by foreign exchange. It also reaffirmed its 11% to 13% growth outlook, which includes about 100 basis points of contribution from Stelo, RBC said.
While investors remain focused on slowing U.S. growth, DexCom reported "very close to a record" new patient starts in the US, with sequential improvement supported by the 15-day G7 rollout and ongoing CGM adoption, the brokerage added.
RBC said the company's May 14 Investor Day is a key upcoming catalyst. It estimates 2026 revenue of $5.22 billion and EPS of $2.56, up 12% and 23% year over year, respectively.
The firm reiterated its outperform rating and a $85 price target on DexCom.
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