FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Cava Could Beat Quarterly Same-Store Sales Views, Lift 2026 Outlook Amid Continued Momentum, RBC Says

By

Cava Group's (CAVA) first-quarter same-store sales are expected to top Wall Street's estimates amid continued momentum, which could prompt the company to raise its full-year outlook, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Friday.

The brokerage projects the fast-casual restaurant chain's same-store sales for the quarter to rise 6%, while the Street is looking for 5.9% growth, according to the RBC note to clients. Cava is scheduled to report results May 19.

"Thus far this earnings season, restaurant winners (and) losers have largely been defined by sensitivity to (the Middle East) conflict-related macro headwinds," RBC analyst Logan Reich said. "For Cava, we don't think their traffic is materially impacted, where their relatively high-income consumer exposure should insulate them from higher gas prices."

Energy prices have jumped as the US-Israel war with Iran has curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The war, which started at the end of February, paused following a recent ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, though a framework for a permanent truce is yet to be reached.

US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.392 per gallon Friday, compared with $3.187 a year ago, according to data from AAA, a travel organization that tracks fuel prices in the country.

Cava started the year with comparable sales momentum, which could continue through 2026 amid "menu innovation, digital improvements, and easing compares," Reich said. These factors could help drive upward revisions to the company's own full-year outlook for same-store sales to grow between 3% and 5%, which the brokerage said was "conservative."

RBC raised its price target on Cava's stock to $100 from $90 with an outperform rating.

The company's shares were down 2.5% in Friday late-afternoon trade. So far in 2026, the stock has surged 56%.

Despite the shares' significant year-to-date outperformance, RBC said it's leaning "constructive" into Cava's upcoming results.

"We theorize there's potential consumer reversion towards the fast-casual category this year, as consumers could increasingly prioritize healthier (and) wellness, which Cava should benefit from, following a material slowdown across the category in (2025) as quick-service chains took share driven by incremental value offerings," Reich said.

Price: $91.09, Change: $-2.33, Percent Change: -2.49%

Related Articles

US Markets

Tokyo Inflation Hits Four-Year Low as Oil, Yen Cloud Outlook

Tokyo inflation lost momentum again, underscoring the Bank of Japan's dilemma as price pressures build unevenly. Core consumer prices in the capital rose 1.5% in April, the slowest pace in four years and below the central bank's 2% target for a third straight month.The reading marked a fifth consecutive slowdown and came in under market expectations. A narrower gauge that strips out both fresh food and energy, which is also closely watched by policymakers, increased 1.9%, also easing from the prior month.The softer print partly reflects government fuel subsidies and one-off factors such as a sharp drop in nursery school fees, alongside moderating gains in durable goods and processed food. Energy prices continued to decline, though at a slower pace.Still, the calm may not last. Rising oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict and a weaker yen are expected to push up import costs in the months ahead.The outlook is already complicating policy decisions.The BOJ kept rates unchanged this week in a split decision, even as some officials leaned toward tightening. Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled flexibility, leaving room to wait as risks to growth intensify.Currency moves add another layer. Authorities stepped into the foreign exchange market to support the yen after it slid near 160 per dollar, highlighting concern that prolonged weakness could further inflate import bills."We expect the BOJ to guard against an inflation overshoot. That strengthens the case for a 25-basis-point hike in June, but the latest reading suggests it's far from certain," said Bloomberg economist Taro Kimura."The central bank is also watching uncertainty around the Iran war and the government's willingness to support growth amid a crude oil squeeze."

Nikkei 225
US Markets

Tokyo Inflation Hits Four-Year Low as Oil, Yen Cloud Outlook

Tokyo inflation lost momentum again, underscoring the Bank of Japan's dilemma as price pressures build unevenly. Core consumer prices in the capital rose 1.5% in April, the slowest pace in four years and below the central bank's 2% target for a third straight month.The reading marked a fifth consecutive slowdown and came in under market expectations. A narrower gauge that strips out both fresh food and energy, which is also closely watched by policymakers, increased 1.9%, also easing from the prior month.The softer print partly reflects government fuel subsidies and one-off factors such as a sharp drop in nursery school fees, alongside moderating gains in durable goods and processed food. Energy prices continued to decline, though at a slower pace.Still, the calm may not last. Rising oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict and a weaker yen are expected to push up import costs in the months ahead."Core consumer inflation is likely to accelerate due to cost-push factors from the Middle East conflict, which will push up not just prices for ⁠energy but various items," Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, was quoted by Reuters as saying.The outlook is already complicating policy decisions.The BOJ kept rates unchanged this week in a split decision, even as some officials leaned toward tightening. Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled flexibility, leaving room to wait as risks to growth intensify.Currency moves add another layer. Authorities stepped into the foreign exchange market to support the yen after it slid near 160 per dollar, highlighting concern that prolonged weakness could further inflate import bills.

Nikkei 225
US Markets

Wuliangye Yibin's First-Quarter 2026 Profit Nearly Tops Full-Year 2025 Figure

Wuliangye Yibin's (SHE:000858) first-quarter attributable profit surged 83% from the year-ago period on higher revenue despite surging sales costs.The baijiu distillery logged an attributable profit of 8.06 billion yuan during the three months through March 31, higher than 4.42 billion yuan recorded in the year-ago period, according to an after-hours filing on Thursday.The company also attributed the higher profit to a lower base in the year-ago period.First-quarter profit nearly topped the profit recorded for the whole of 2025 at 8.95 billion yuan, down 72% from 31.9 billion yuan in the year-ago period.Singapore-based investment intelligence platform Smartkarma estimated a net profit of 11.16 billion yuan.Q1 earnings per share jumped 83% to 2.0772 yuan from 1.1378 yuan.Wuliangye Yibin's revenue grew 34% to 22.8 billion yuan from 17.1 billion yuan in the prior-year period.Total operating costs jumped 11% to 12.2 billion yuan from nearly 11 billion yuan a year earlier, the baijiu manufacturer said in its filing.Sales costs surged 145% to 3.67 billion yuan from 1.49 billion yuan.The jump could mean Wuliangye is either actively increasing channel development investment and brand promotion or subsidizing dealers facing pricing pressures, Futu said in its digital platform, Futubull.Net cash flow from operating activities turned to a negative 2.54 billion yuan from positive inflows of 15.8 billion yuan in the year-ago period.A high volume of collected bills due to market changes caused the negative cash flow, Futu said, citing Wuliangye.Cash and cash equivalents stayed at 1.3 times higher than the annual revenue, Futu said.Meanwhile, the wine maker plans to repurchase between 8 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan of shares for up to 153.59 yuan apiece, according to a separate disclosure.

SHE:000858