Global dry bulk and agricultural commodity markets are diverging, with coal and grains responding to weather-driven demand swings, shifting trade flows and uneven inventory signals, Kpler strategists said in a note on Friday.
Coal markets have steadied after earlier weakness linked to broader energy sentiment and expectations around potential US-Iran diplomatic progress, Kpler analysts said. However, supply-side disruptions are helping to underpin prices.
QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure notice, affecting 21 LNG cargoes for Italy's Edison between April and early September, totaling about 2 million tons of LNG. Edison has already replaced 14 cargoes and said it has secured sufficient alternative supply to meet demand.
Kpler said that the disruptions have tightened short-term balances, even as European coal demand remains structurally subdued.
China, the world's largest coal consumer, has entered the peak summer demand season on a softer footing. Kpler analysts said that heavy rainfall across southern regions and hydro basins in June boosted hydropower output and reduced cooling demand, delaying the usual seasonal drawdown in coal stocks.
Coastal inventories across key provinces have risen modestly week-on-week, while daily consumption has dropped sharply, underscoring weak near-term burn.
Simultaneously, Kpler said that early supply indicators point to constrained domestic availability later in the quarter. Lower mine utilization and reduced output expectations for July are likely to limit production growth.
Though inventories in northern port hubs remain elevated relative to last year, traders expect demand to strengthen once temperatures rise and rainfall normalizes.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture's latest quarterly stocks report showed corn inventories at 5.3 billion bushels at the start of June, below market expectations, while soybean and wheat stocks were broadly in line.
The weaker-than-expected corn stocks have raised questions about the underlying US supply balance, with some market participants suggesting that 2025 production may have been overstated and could be revised downward.
US corn acreage was unchanged at 95.3 million acres, while soybean plantings rose to 85.4 million acres, Kpler said, citing the USDA June acreage report.
Soybean export flows remain firm, with US sales for the next marketing year reaching 2.2 million tons by mid-June. China accounted for just 200,000 tons, while commitments to unknown destinations reached 1.4 million tons, the highest level for this time of year since 2022.
Trade flows are also reinforcing shifts in global demand patterns. Market participants said that actual Chinese purchases remain subdued, with no corn or wheat bought despite broader agricultural commitments, and US soybean pricing suggests limited confidence in full fulfillment of agreed volumes.
Brazil continues to dominate Chinese soybean imports, exporting a record 14.2 million tons in June alone, with at least 10.3 million tons shipped to China. Cumulative shipments from Brazil to China have reached 68.7 million tons so far this marketing year, well above last year's pace.
Meanwhile, the winter barley harvest in southern Russia has begun with generally positive yield reports. Kpler said that Russian wheat export offers have eased to about $230 per ton, with EU and Ukrainian prices following lower.
Kpler analysts said the combination of soft Chinese coal demand, shifting grain trade flows, and improving Russian supply prospects is adding downward pressure to dry bulk freight demand, even as regional weather volatility and supply disruptions continue to create pockets of support.