FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

DBS Slashes Brent Crude Forecasts for 2026, 2027; Says Prices May Have Peaked in Q2

By

DBS has lowered its price forecasts for Brent crude by $5 for 2026 and 2027 and suggested that oil prices may have peaked in Q2 for now.

The Singapore-based financial institution expects Brent crude to now average between $80-$85/barrel in 2026, down from its previous estimates of $85-$90/bbl, and $70-$75/bbl in 2027 compared with $72-$77/bbl earlier. It had previously projected oil prices to hover in the $90-$110/bbl range in Q2 before a deal was struck.

"We reckon 2Q26 will represent the peak of oil prices for a while, as gradual resumption of Gulf supplies, lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports and UAE's exit of OPEC all point towards a well-supplied market over the next few quarters," said Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS in an emailed statement to.

"Chinese demand has also come under the scanner, with a sharp dip in oil imports in May being seen as having some components which could be more long term in nature," he added.

DBS said despite the announcement of the interim US-Iran agreement announced earlier this week, shipowners and traders were still awaiting for clarity on the deal and re-opening of the Hormuz to assess whether safe transits are possible through the waterway. Previous US reviews had suggested a few months were needed to fully clear the Strait of mines.

Other uncertainties too remain, including Israel's potential unwillingness to accept a ceasefire in Lebanon, and sticking points in the form of Lebanon and the extent of unfreezing of Iranian assets, it said.

However, the announcement could result in the transit of a steady stream of vessels through a Strait, given that a handful of vessels have crossed the waterway over the last few weeks through waters close to Oman, while avoiding detection.

"Iraq and Kuwait would be keen to cut prices and sell their stored oil as fast as possible as they have been the worst hit in terms of exports over the last three months. This means the supply-demand gap could close quite fast in 3Q, and we could be in surplus territory by 4Q, even if some production in the Gulf is not back to pre-war levels," Sarkar said.

According to DBS, a combination of factors have helped keep oil prices lower than expected including the exports of more supplies than anticipated through the Gulf, weaker Chinese demand, higher exports from countries like US, Canada, and Venezuela, and "support from inventory drawdowns, which have allowed both physical oil supplies and oil prices to remain within manageable levels, without causing any major panic till now."

Related Articles

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Despite Reduced Geopolitical Risk and Cooling Weather Forecasts

US natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trade on Monday, despite steep declines earlier in European and Asian gas markets, as a Middle East peace framework eased concerns about disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous natural gas contract both gained 1.03%, rising to $3.152 per million British thermal units.While the prospect of reduced geopolitical risk pressured international gas prices, prompt US gas futures were largely unaffected, according to Aegis Hedging. The firm said the development could, however, temper growth in associated gas production from the Permian Basin.Prices initially fell to a 2-1/2-week low on cooler weather forecasts before rebounding as traders covered short positions and LNG export demand strengthened.Barchart said the market remains vulnerable to a short-covering rally given heavy speculative bearish positioning. It said the latest Commitment of Traders report showed hedge funds increased their net-short natural gas futures position by 10,726 contracts in the week ended June 9 to 34,059 contracts, the largest net-short position in more than two years.Supply remained robust, with US dry gas production estimated at 109.7 billion cubic feet per day on Monday, down about 2 Bcf/d from Friday but up 3.0% from a year earlier, according to BNEF data cited by Barchart."Natural gas production continues to hold above 108 Bcf/d, while demand is expected to ease somewhat as more seasonal temperatures return across most of the country," NRG Energy said.Lower 48 gas demand was estimated at 70.2 Bcf/d on Monday, down 5.7 Bcf/d from Friday but up 7.1% from a year earlier. Celsius Energy estimated late-Monday power-sector gas burn at 28.2 Bcf/d.Weather remained a headwind for prices. The Energy Buyers Guide said forecasts show no significant heat across major demand regions, keeping the market rangebound as traders await a stronger catalyst.It said prolonged mild weather into mid-July could ease concerns about summer demand and support a larger end-of-season storage surplus.Adding to the bearish weather outlook, Commodity Weather Group on Monday shifted forecasts cooler, with below-normal temperatures expected across much of the Midwest through June 24, Barchart said.LNG feedgas flows to US export plants rose to 19.3 Bcf/d on Monday, up 0.2 Bcf/d from Friday and sharply above last week's levels, BNEF reportedly said.Vortexa said US LNG exports rebounded to 2.7 million metric tons across 40 cargoes in the last week, the strongest since the first quarter, as Cameron LNG returned from downtime and Freeport LNG completed maintenance.

Commodities

Permian, Haynesville Rebound Drives 22-Rig Weekly Gain in US Land Activity, TPH Energy Says

US land drilling activity added 22 rigs last week and reached 605 as Permian and Haynesville operators reversed recent declines, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.Baker Hughes (BKR) reported a smaller increase of one rig to 550, while the respective four-week trends showed gains of six rigs for Enverus and five rigs for Baker Hughes, TPH Energy said.Driving most of the increase, horizontal activity expanded by 19 rigs as both the Permian and Haynesville added seven rigs each following the prior week's pullback and new structural deployments, according to TPH Energy.After adjusting for geography and well classifications, TPH Energy estimates Haynesville activity at about 56 horizontal rigs, with Apex International Energy continuing to account for roughly 25% of basin drilling activity.While Eagle Ford operators reduced activity by three rigs, other oil-focused basins posted gains and added between two and three rigs each during the week.Canadian drilling increased by 10 rigs to 177 from 137 a year earlier, while Gulf of Mexico activity added one floater and finished with 17 floaters and three working jackups, according to TPH Energy.

$BKR
Commodities

Global LNG Trade Accelerates as Asian Heat Boosts Demand and Exports Recover, Vortexa Says

Global LNG trade strengthened last week as Asian heatwaves lifted cooling demand, European imports rebounded, and major exporters increased shipments, Vortexa said Monday in its LNG Weekly.Asian LNG arrivals reached 4.8 million metric tons in 77 cargoes, among the strongest weekly levels since the first quarter. India imported 0.6 million tons in 10 cargoes, with its 14-day moving average at a seasonal record as buyers secured fuel for power generation and fertilizer production. Pakistan received two cargoes, including a Qatari shipment aboard the Liberian-flagged vessel Lebrethah, following a dark transit through the Strait of Hormuz.China's imports eased to 1.0 million tons in 16 cargoes, their lowest since early May, although the country received its first Qatari LNG cargo since March. Imports into Japan and South Korea remained broadly in line with recent averages. Asian spot LNG prices traded at an average premium of $2.3 per million British thermal units over Europe, keeping the Atlantic-to-Asia arbitrage open.European LNG imports rose to 2.1 million tons in 35 cargoes, the highest weekly total in a month. France's Montoir terminal received its first cargo since early May following maintenance, lifting national imports about 30% above their four-week average. French LNG demand could remain supported by potential nuclear output restrictions linked to elevated river temperatures. EU gas storage ended the week 44% full, 14% percentage points below the five-year average.On the supply side, US LNG exports rebounded to 2.7 million tons in 40 cargoes, their strongest week since the first quarter, as Cameron LNG recovered from downtime and Freeport LNG completed maintenance. Australia exported 1.7 million tons in 25 cargoes, more than 15% above its four-week average, despite ongoing industrial action at the Ichthys LNG plant.Qatar loaded three LNG cargoes last week, and several QatarEnergy-controlled vessels reappeared on AIS tracking systems after transiting the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting signals. The vessels are bound for China, Pakistan, and India, highlighting continued LNG flows through the strategically important waterway.Meanwhile, Russia completed its earliest post-winter Northern Sea Route LNG delivery since 2020. The sanctioned ice-class Christophe de Margerie discharged an Arctic LNG 2 cargo into the Koryak floating storage unit in Kamchatka after an 18-day voyage. The cargo is expected to be transferred to the Arctic Mulan for delivery to China, while eight additional Arctic LNG 2 cargoes are already en route to Chinese buyers.