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Crude Eases as US-Iran Talks Gain Traction and Lebanon Conflict Eases, TPH Says

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Crude prices eased with Brent falling about 9% to roughly $79 per barrel since June 12, as diplomatic progress between the US and Iran helped smooth some immediate supply concerns, TPH Energy Research analyst Matt Portillo said in a Monday note.

The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last week and held initial negotiations in Switzerland on Sunday.

The talks produced a roadmap toward a final agreement, with technical discussions set to continue this week. Markets were also encouraged by reports that Israel has completed its offensive campaign in Lebanon.

However, significant risks remain. Israel has indicated it intends to maintain defensive positions inside Lebanon, while earlier military strikes prompted Iran to close at least its side of the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, US President Donald Trump's warning that the US could strike Iran if Hezbollah failed to honor a brokered ceasefire led Tehran to suspend direct participation in quadrilateral talks, communicating instead through mediators Pakistan and Qatar.

Iran has said its nuclear program was not discussed during the latest negotiations. Instead, talks focused on Tehran's preconditions for launching technical discussions, including an end to the conflict in Lebanon, oil export waivers, and the release of a portion of Iran's frozen assets.

According to Iranian officials, the latter two measures are expected to enter the "implementation phase" soon.

The Lebanon ceasefire remains the first major test of the diplomatic process, with the two sides establishing a de-escalation cell to help manage tensions.

For energy markets, the restoration of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical issue. Even if traffic resumes, Iran's proposed framework could complicate operations.

The country's Persian Gulf Strait Authority requires vessels to obtain permits and secure approval 48 hours in advance.

The permit system could also provide the basis for future transit fees once the 60-day period covered by the memorandum of understanding expires.

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Crude prices declined below $80 per barrel to a three-month low this week after an interim US-Iran peace deal dismantled the Persian Gulf blockade, clearing the way for million barrels of stranded oil to return to a market already facing weak demand forecasts.West Texas Intermediate settled at $77.54/bbl from $84.29/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $80.38/bbl from $86.85/bbl a week earlier.Brent crude futures fell for their second straight week following the peace deal, losing about 8% so far this week, while West Texas Intermediate futures shed about 10%.Both contracts fell to their lowest levels since early March.The selloff was triggered by a 60-day memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran.On Thursday, the US Central Command officially lifted its maritime blockade, allowing commercial tankers to safely resume transit through the vital Strait of Hormuz.Several media outlets confirmed that idling Saudi Arabian supertankers and previously dark vessels had begun moving, citing shipping data.Kpler estimated that the reopening will unlock a massive backlog of oil, including 90 million barrels of stranded non-Iranian crude and roughly 70 million barrels of Iranian oil.While analysts caution that production ramp-ups and lingering mine-clearing security assessments could take up to six months to fully normalize, the immediate release of floating storage represents an enormous near-term increase in available supply.On the supply side, the US Energy Information Administration showed commercial crude inventories drew down sharply by 8.3 million barrels.Adding long-term pressure, the International Energy Agency slashed its 2026 demand outlook by 1.1 million barrels per day, citing severe economic slowdowns in China and OECD nations.The IEA warned of a massive supply overhang by 2027, projecting global supply to surge by 8 million b/d, while demand increases by a modest 2 million b/d.This stands in stark opposition to OPEC's bullish forecast, which expects oil demand to steadily expand to 113.3 million b/d by 2030.However, analysts expect a decline in prices. "Oil prices are unlikely to fall much further in the near term, even as they 'grind lower' over time," Goldman Sachs analysts noted.Meanwhile, the US oil rig count remained unchanged at 433 in the week ending June 18, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Thursday. That compares with 438 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by seven to 749 from 742 the previous week.

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