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Correction: US Crude Inventories Seen Falling as Exports Rise, SPR Draw Slow, Macquarie Says

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(Correction with forecast figure in first sentence)

Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 2.5-million-barrel draw for the week ending July 24, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Monday, following a 2 million-barrel build the previous week.

Crude runs are projected to edge higher to about 17.1 million b/d. Crude exports are projected to rise by 400,000 b/d, while imports are projected to decrease by 200,000 b/d.

"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.

Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, rose by 200,000 b/d for the week ended July 24, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped by 3.7 million bbls.

On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to rise by 300,000 b/d, while distillate stocks and jet fuel inventories rose by 500,000 b/d and 100,000 b/d, respectively.

Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.5 mmb/d.

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