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Consumers' 1-Year Inflation Expectations Fall, Labor Market Outlook Deteriorates 'Somewhat,' Fed Survey Shows

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Consumers' 1-Year Inflation Expectations Fall, Labor Market Outlook Deteriorates 'Somewhat,' Fed Survey Shows

US consumers' short-term inflation expectations decreased in May, while the labor market outlook "deteriorated somewhat," a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed Monday.

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% last month, while the three- and five-year outlooks held steady at 3.1% and 3%, respectively. Year-ahead gas price growth projections fell in May, but rose for food and rent, according to the survey.

Median home price growth estimates rose by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, the highest reading since July 2022. "The increase was most pronounced for the West and Midwest census regions," the Fed branch said.

Last month, official data showed that US annual consumer inflation accelerated in April to the fastest pace in almost three years. The consumer price index report for May is due Wednesday.

"Labor market expectations deteriorated somewhat, with an increase in layoff expectations and a decline in job finding expectations," the New York Fed said Monday.

The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next year rose by 0.5 percentage point to 15.1% in May, while the odds of leaving one's job voluntarily advanced by 2.6 percentage points to 20.8%, marking its highest level since February 2023, according to the report.

The mean perceived probability of finding a job if the current job was lost fell by 2.3 percentage points to 43.7%, its lowest reading since December. Median one-year earnings growth expectations continued to be stable at 2.7% last month, the survey showed.

Last week, official data showed that the US economy added more jobs than projected in May, while the unemployment rate was steady at 4.3%.

"Expectations about future credit access, households' financial situation, and delinquencies all deteriorated" last month, the New York Fed survey showed Monday.

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