The Middle East conflict has severely disrupted the world's largest gas reservoir with strikes having reached Qatar's North Field and Iran's South Pars that holds 25% of global gas resources and supplies 10% of world production, Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday.
Recent strikes on North Field and South Pars have inflicted $5.8 billion in damages, threatening global energy security and complicating upcoming LNG expansion timelines, it said.
Wood Mackenzie notes that targeted strikes on Qatari infrastructure including the Pearl GTL complex and Barzan gas plant have removed 4.5 billion cubic feet per day of processing capacity, accounting for 17% of Qatar's LNG export volume and 35% of its domestic gas supply.
The firm estimates repair timelines stretching up to twelve months, putting roughly 10% of Shell's upstream cash flow at risk from the Pearl GTL outage alone.
Wood Mackenzie further highlights that Iran's position is equally precarious following strikes on the Assaluyeh hub and Kangan facilities.
With South Pars supplying up to half of Iran's fuel and 80% of its power generation, Wood Mackenzie states that the outages worsen domestic supply shortages as peak summer demand surges past 11 billion cubic feet per day.
Beyond LNG, Wood Mackenzie warns the disruption threatens broader downstream markets, impacting global helium, condensate, methanol, and ammonia supplies.
According to Wood Mackenzie, the pace of infrastructure restoration will now critically shape buyer contracting strategies, especially with 54 million metric tons per annum of uncontracted Qatari volumes expected to reach the market by 2035.