Commodity investor assets under management remained stuck below the $1 trillion threshold in May, as weaker energy prices and sustained outflows from exchange-traded products weighed on the broader complex, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note Tuesday.
The latest data from RBC showed continued fragility in both commodity index-linked assets and exchange-traded products, with headline-driven volatility shaping monthly pricing dynamics.
RBC analysts said that energy once again proved the key driver of dispersion across the asset class.
Though the sector accounted for 55% of year-to-date gains, it reversed sharply in May as sentiment-driven price weakness led to an estimated $20 billion negative impact on index assets. RBC said that the drag more than offset gains in base metals and left total benchmark commodity index AUM tracked by the bank at $351.4 billion.
RBC analysts said across broader exchange-traded products, AUM fell 1.9% over the month to $610.5 billion, marking the lowest level since December. The decline was driven by about $10 billion in negative price effects alongside $1.8 billion in net outflows.
Energy saw persistent investor redemptions, with $2.6 billion in outflows, its third consecutive month of net withdrawals.
However, despite intermittent inflows into energy within certain structures, the broader complex continued to see net selling pressure, extending a three-month streak of ETP outflows for the first time since early 2024.
RBC said that while roll yield dynamics normalized after several volatile months, helped previously by steep backwardation in energy markets, recent softening in prompt prices and a flatter curve reduced that tailwind in May.
However, RBC analysts cautioned that potential summer supply tightness could reintroduce curve-driven volatility in the months ahead.