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Commezbank on Overnight News

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Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Tuesday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries fall in the New York session, trend sideways in Asia. Bund futures mirror USTs. S&P closes higher, e-minis sideways, Asian equities mixed. The euro (EUR) weakens to $1.16. Brent remains below US$83/barrel.

U.S. withdraws key NATO force pledges with immediate effect, including a carrier strike group, a long-range bomber unit and more than 50 fighter jets (FAZ sources).

U.S.: Strategic petroleum reserve hits 43-year low.

Iran war: Vice President JD Vance says nuclear inspectors would be allowed into Iran, toll-free Strait of Hormuz is explicitly in agreement. U.S. official says Hormuz will fully reopen by Friday, 40-50 ships expected per day within one to two weeks, Strait toll-free for at least 60 days. The Memorandum of Understanding contains a possible $300 billion rebuilding fund (Bloomberg sources). Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran won't get nuclear weapons "with or without deal."

==EUROPE:

Italy: BTP Italia Si orders total 3.177 billion euros on first day.

==ASIA:

Japan: The central bank (BoJ) raises overnight rate to 1.00% in a 7-1 decision, says it will keep raising rates, pace depends on impact from the Middle East and the economic outlook.

Japan: The BoJ releases Q3 bond purchase schedule earlier than planned, cuts purchase frequency; monthly Japanese government purchases to reach two trillion yen from April 2027. BoJ says it will respond "nimbly" if long-term rates rise sharply, including increasing purchases.

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