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Commerzbank Says Oil Prices Hover Around Recent Highs, Treasuries Edge Higher, US Equity Futures Flat

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Brent crude hovered above $95 a barrel on the unlikely normalization of Strait of Hormuz energy flows, according to Commerzbank Research in a note.

President Donald Trump said the renewed campaign against Iran wouldn't last too long and that oil prices would eventually come down. Trump also said the US "now controls" the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the US is quietly extending troop deployments, suggesting the Iran conflict could continue well into next year, according to the WSJ.

Treasuries recovered into the New York close and edged higher in Asian trading on Thursday as Japanese government bonds rallied, said Commerzbank.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury is buying back illiquid, long-dated USTs to free up bank balance sheets and increase dealer capacity to participate in Treasury auctions, according to the bank. He said the goal is to avoid "bad outcomes" and allow prices to return to equilibrium.

Bessent said the administration is working to reduce the budget deficit, noting that roughly $70 billion in tariff refunds contributed to this year's increase. He added that "we'll get the tariffs back in again." Bessent also said the US is on the cusp of a significant productivity growth surge.

The Beige Book reported that economic activity increased modestly across the US. Employment edged higher, while prices also rose modestly. The overall outlook remained positive, although sentiment varied across sectors, said Commerzbank.

US equity futures were little changed, while Asian equities remained supported, added the bank. The yen strengthened amid speculation of potential intervention, while the euro edged higher toward $1.16.

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