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Commerzbank Says Oil Falls on Hormuz Deal Hope, Treasuries Remain Well Bid, US Equity Futures Higher

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Brent crude fell below $79 a barrel on hopes of an imminent deal between the US and Iran to free passage in the key Strait of Hormuz, according to Commerzbank Research.

US officials said a deal with Iran is nearing completion, with an announcement possible as early as Wednesday, according to Axios.

President Donald Trump said talks are progressing well, adding, "we'll know in 48 hours," said Commerzbank.

Treasuries continued to attract buyers through the late New York session and into the Asian session on Wednesday, said the bank. The agreement would reportedly give Iran greater operational control over the Strait of Hormuz, while waiving transit fees for the first 60 days.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid reiterated that restoring price stability remains his top priority, arguing that interest rates need to stay higher for longer. He also stressed that the Fed's task forces are purely advisory and won't have any decision-making authority, added Commerzbank.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised down to 5.86% from 6.18%.

US equity futures traded higher early Wednesday after the S&P 500 closed at another record high, said Commerzbank. Japan's Nikkei jumped 3.5%.

In China, the RatingDog Services PMI fell 3.7 points to 50.4 in August, below the consensus forecast of 53.7 and marking its weakest reading since September 2024.

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