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Commerzbank on Overnight News

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Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries soften in the New York session, weaken further in Asia. Bund future tracks USTs lower in Asia. S&P briefly reaches a record high before e-minis strongly reverse alongside weaker Asian equities. The euro (EUR) is below $1.17. Brent above US$103/barrel.

U.S.: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett says inflation is "very much declining at the core level," falling inflation should help the Federal Reserve normalize rates. Hassett can imagine rate cuts alongside balance sheet reduction. Highly confident that the Senate will confirm Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chair, hopes current Chair Jerome Powell "moves on" after confirmation.

Iran war: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says three to five-day ceasefire timeline is "not true," President Donald Trump hasn't set a firm deadline for an Iran proposal, blockade is still effective. Says Europeans offer to talk, but no action on joining the blockade.

Iran war: Iran may have placed over 20 mines in and around the Strait of Hormuz, clearing could take up to six months (WP).

Iran war: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says blockade and threats are the main obstacles, but continues to welcome dialogue.

==EUROPE:

Finland: Government agrees on a budget framework for 2027-2030, including 520 million euros in spending cuts by 2030.

==ASIA:

Japan: Manufacturing PMI rises 3.3pts to 54.9.

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US Treasury Closing Levels

3:00 Wednesday vs 3:00 Tuesday2yr 100-04 vs 100-05; 3.792% vs 3.714%5yr 99-26+ vs 99-27; 3.911% vs 3.906%10yr 98-21 vs 100-31; 4.292% vs 4.289%30yr 97-20 vs 97-22+; 4.900% vs 4.895%2/10 49.787 bps vs 51.143 bps5/30 98.500 bps vs 98.795 bps

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US 20-Year Auction High Yield Rises from Previous Month, Demand Lower

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