-- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Tuesday highlighted:
Markets: Brent slips below $100/barrel, equities extend gains, United States Treasuries recover after Vice President JD Vance comments, US dollar (USD) weakens. Long-end Japanese government bond yields slide after strong 20-year auction.
Fed: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee says the Fed would have to factor in higher energy prices for an extended period, warns about a hit to consumer sentiment. Fed Governor Stephen Miran sees no reason to react to the inflation spike, expects inflation "pretty close" to the target one year from now; doesn't support selling securities, less balance sheet use helps preserve independence.
Fed: New York Fed expects SOMA net income to turn positive this year, plans a larger reduction of bill purchases over the coming month.
Fed: Kevin Warsh submitted paperwork to the senate, putting him one step closer to hearing on the Fed chair position (CNBC).
Iran war: U.S. and Iran mull another round of face-to-face negotiations for a longer-term ceasefire. Vice President Vance says the U.S. has achieved objectives, "can start to wind this thing down." Iran's president says in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron that Tehran is ready to continue U.S. peace talks. Iran offered a five-year suspension of nuclear activity during weekend talks, the US proposed a 20-year suspension (NYT). Secretary of State Marco Rubio to host talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington on Tuesday.
Strait of Hormuz: Saudi Arabia is pressing the U.S. to drop the blockade (WSJ). President Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer tout a plan to open Hormuz. President Donald Trump wants to give details on Tuesday on which countries offered help.
President Trump says "we may stop by Cuba after we're finished with this."
==EUROPE:
ECB: European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau calls for vigilance as the French central bank (BdF) survey shows 23% of French businesses plan to increase prices in April, up from 11% in March. BdF sees Q1 gross domestic product growth of 0.3%.
U.K.: Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will pitch the United Kingdom as a "rare safe haven for investors" at the International Monetary Fund summit. BRC March retail sales beat expectations.