Steady demand for medium-range vessels, contrasting with a downturn for larger tankers as refined-product flows become more regionalized, is reshaping clean tanker markets, Ioannis Papadimitriou, principal freight analyst at Vortexa, said in a Thursday note.
Vortexa analysts said that MR2 tanker demand has remained resilient since the conflict began in March, while LR2 ton-miles have fallen to their lowest level in the dataset, about 35% below the 2025 average between April and August.
The divergence reflects a major shift in trade flows. Papadimitriou said that the Middle East accounted for almost half of global to-miles for diesel and naphtha movements before the conflict, making LR2 vessels exposed to disruption in the region.
However, the decline in LR2 demand has not translated into a similar collapse in freight rates. The number of LR2 vessels trading clean products has fallen by 52 since March as tankers moved into crude and other dirty trades, helping to tighten clean-tanker availability.
Vortexa said that the shift highlights how crude flows have been prioritized to keep refineries outside oil-producing regions supplied.
MR2 employment has proved more resilient, although the source of demand has changed during the conflict.
The Atlantic Basin was the main employment center for MR2 vessels during the first half of the conflict, with CPP exports reaching a record in late April as substantial volumes moved toward the Pacific.
However, Papadimitriou said that by summer, activity increasingly shifted toward Asia. Asian buyers secured more crude and rebuilt inventories, prompting higher refinery runs in July and August and supporting employment in the Pacific Basin.
Vortexa said that employment in North and Southeast Asia reached its highest level in almost three years.
The trade has also become more regional. Short-haul voyages have increasingly replaced longer inter-basin movements, reducing average voyage distances and altering how MR2 capacity is absorbed.
Papadimitriou said that the loss of Russian diesel exports to the Atlantic following the ban has further altered the balance between the Atlantic and Pacific basins.
Meanwhile, the outlook for clean tankers is becoming more challenging as refined-product supply tightens.
Refined-product liftings in North America and Asia have risen by about 2 million barrels per day compared with the 10-year average since March, while volumes elsewhere have fallen by about 3.4 million b/d, with Europe, the Middle East and Russia accounting for much of the decline.
Vortexa said that the situation has left global product liftings more than 1 million b/d below the 10-year average, limiting the potential for additional tanker employment.
US refiners are also operating at high utilization rates, with PADD 3 utilization approaching 100%, thereby reducing the scope for further increases in product exports from the region.