Canada's provinces have seen widely divergent fortunes over the past two years, but an improving picture in 2027 should also narrow some of those performance gaps, said CIBC.
The balance of this year will see winners and losers from an oil price shock, and some provinces hit by more meaningful headwinds from trade frictions and housing market weakness, writes the bank in a note to clients.
Provinces have varying degrees of labor market slack that leaves ample room for growth without threatening an acceleration in inflation, stated CIBC.
Housing market activity will continue to be a major source of growth differentiation for provinces, with building still expected to remain weak this year as supply excesses in the condo space and economic uncertainty weigh on activity, pointed out the bank.
2027 could see a return to faster rates of building, with per-capita housing starts expected to rise sharply in Ontario after falling for several years, and to a lesser extent in British Columbia, where building was already robust relative to the population, added CIBC.
In the near-term, there is scope for some upside and downside surprises versus what provincial budgets assumed for growth this year. There is material fiscal upside for oil-
producing provinces, even if crude prices begin to descend in the next few months, while B.C. budget assumptions may have been a touch optimistic, according to the bank.
A challenging 2026 will see some other provinces lagging behind forecasts made at budget time, due to the oil price shock, trade frictions, and housing market weakness. But by 2027, at least some tariff relief and lower uncertainty coming out of the trade talks, and an end to the Middle East conflict, could allow provinces that are now lagging to narrow those gaps, it noted.