China's Trade Surplus Beats Forecasts in June Amid AI-Driven Export Boom

China's trade surplus widened in June, driven by stronger-than-expected export growth as global demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and technology hardware continued to surge.

Trade surplus expanded to $125.6 billion from $105.4 billion in May, according to data from Chinese customs on Tuesday.

The latest print beat the consensus forecast of $121.4 billion, tracked by Investing.com.

Exports rose 27% year over year to $412.4 billion, beating the Investing.com consensus forecast for an 18.2% increase.

Imports increased 36% from a year earlier to $286.8 billion, also exceeding the Investing.com consensus forecast for a 24% rise.

The data reflects solid global demand for AI-related products, with international firms accelerating orders for semiconductors and data center components.

At home, China is pushing heavily into the AI race, with hi-tech manufacturing growing 13.1% year over year, while hi-tech fixed asset investment rose 4.5%, according to ING.

However, analysts note a persistent structural imbalance between booming foreign demand and sluggish domestic consumption.

"Explanations for this latter challenge include continued wealth destruction from the property downturn and wage growth slowing due to involution-type competition in a near-deflationary environment," Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for Greater China, wrote in a July 9 note.

China's factory activity weakened to a three-month low in June, despite increasing demand for chips. The headline RatingDog China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 51.7 from 51.8 in May. Analysts from Nomura attributed this to the oversaturation of AI, which has been limiting its economic growth contribution.

Singapore's Q2 Growth Exceeds Forecast as AI Demand Boosts Manufacturing

Singapore's economy grew 5.7% year over year in the second quarter, easing from 6.3% in the previous three months, according to advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry on Tuesday.The reading surpassed the consensus forecast of a 5.5% increase, as tracked by Investing.com.On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, gross domestic product expanded 1.1% in the second quarter, extending the 1.3% growth recorded in the first quarter.The goods-producing industries grew 10.4% from a year earlier, led by a 12.2% expansion in manufacturing, while construction growth slowed to 6.2% from 12.9% in the previous quarter.Manufacturing growth accelerated from 8.0% in the first quarter, driven by stronger output in the electronics and precision engineering clusters amid robust artificial intelligence-related demand for semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.The ministry said manufacturing growth was "largely driven by output increases in the electronics and precision engineering clusters on account of strong AI-related demand for semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment."The chemicals and biomedical manufacturing clusters contracted, with the chemicals segment affected by feedstock disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.The stronger-than-expected economic growth comes as economists expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to keep monetary policy unchanged at its next meeting later this month after May core inflation held steady at 1.4%, despite higher prices stemming from the Middle East conflict.The MAS tightened policy in April and raised its 2026 core inflation forecast to 1.5% to 2.5% from 1% to 2%.Singapore's central bank is scheduled to announce its next policy decision by July 31.In May, the Ministry of Trade and Industry maintained Singapore's 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2% to 4%, citing resilient AI-related demand despite rising downside risks from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.The ministry said strong demand for AI-related semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and digital solutions should continue to support the electronics, precision engineering and information and communications sectors.However, it warned that higher energy costs and weaker global demand could weigh on the chemicals, fuels, and transportation industries.

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Genesis Minerals, Vault Minerals Agree to AU$12.6 Billion Merger After Genesis Outbids Regis

Australian gold producers Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD) and Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) have agreed to merge, creating Australia's third-largest gold producer with a pro-forma market capitalization of AU$12.6 billion, the companies announced Tuesday.Under the scheme of arrangement, Vault shareholders will receive 0.7629 new Genesis shares plus AU$0.475 in cash for each Vault share held, implying a value of AU$5.274 per share based on prices at the time the offer was announced.Genesis shareholders will own about 59.8% of the combined group, with Vault holders owning the remaining 40.2%.The deal caps a bidding war for Vault. In May, Vault and Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) announced their own proposed merger, potentially creating a AU$10.7 billion combined company.Last week, Genesis made a rival bid, which Vault described as a "superior proposal." Vault's board ultimately backed the Genesis terms instead, as it represented a 14.5% premium to the Regis offer price of AU$4.61.Vault will pay Regis a break fee of about AU$50.7 million after walking away from their agreement.The combined Genesis-Vault group will produce an estimated 600,000 to 700,000 ounces of gold annually, all from Western Australian operations, with 33.6 million ounces of mineral resources and 9.4 million ounces of ore reserves.The companies expect about AU$2 billion in potential post-tax synergies over 10 years, including AU$1.5 billion from combining operations in the Leonora and Bardoc-Mount Monger areas.Vault Chairman Russell Clark was named non-executive chairman of the merged entity, while Genesis' Executive Chair Raleigh Finlayson was appointed managing director.Genesis CEO Matt Nixon will serve as CEO of the group, while Genesis CFO Morgan Ball will also retain his position.The merged group's board will comprise four Genesis directors and three members from Vault.The transaction is subject to shareholder and court approvals and is expected to be completed by November.Vault's shares will be delisted from the Australian Securities Exchange after the deal's completion.

ASX:GMDASX:VAU

Update: Nasdaq Snaps 3-Day Winning Streak as Oil Jumps Amid US-Iran Tensions

(Updates with market moves at the end of the day.)Equities on Wall Street fell Monday, snapping a three-day winning streak for the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, as oil prices rallied amid a re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict.The Nasdaq shed 1.6% to close at 25,873.2, while the S&P 500 lost 0.8% to 7,515.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3% to 52,498.6. Among sectors, tech saw the steepest decline, down 2.1%, while energy led the gainers with a 3.2% advance.West Texas Intermediate crude was up 8.8% at $77.72 a barrel in Monday late-afternoon trade, while Brent gained 9.2% to $82.97.The US and Iran continued to exchange airstrikes over the weekend, with Tehran targeting American military facilities across Middle Eastern countries, news outlets reported. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly said it closed the crucial Strait of Hormuz until further notice, though the US military disputed the claim.The strait is open and will remain so "with or without Iran," President Donald Trump said in a social media post Monday, adding that the US was reinstating a blockade of Iranian shipping through the narrow waterway.Hostilities between the US and Iran resumed recently, weeks after they signed a memorandum of understanding to end their war that began at the end of February. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows."Clearly, the risk is that this escalates to levels seen early in the war, where neighboring countries and their energy infrastructure are also targeted," ING Bank said in a report. "Escalation has slowed vessels transiting the strait to a trickle, renewing concerns over oil supply tightness through the third quarter."The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday reduced its global oil demand growth outlook for this year while upgrading its projection for 2027.US Treasury yields were higher, with the two-year rate up 6.1 basis points at 4.27% and the 10-year rate rising 4.5 basis points to 4.61%.Official data on Tuesday are expected to show that the consumer price index dropped 0.1% in June on a sequential basis and rose 3.8% annually, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus. Wall Street is projecting core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, to rise 0.2% month over month and 2.9% annually.The Federal Reserve may have to consider raising interest rates if inflation remains high, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Monday."If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the (Federal Open Market Committee) will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term," Waller said in a speech in New York. "We are at a crossroads for policy, and the appropriate action will depend on incoming data."There's a 59% likelihood that the Fed will keep its monetary policy unchanged later this month, down from 74% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The odds of a 25-basis-point rate increase moved to 41% on Monday from about 26% a week earlier.The S&P 500 is heading into the second-quarter reporting cycle with consensus earnings growth projections at their highest in recent quarters, Oppenheimer Asset Management said Monday in a report.US banking giants JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Citigroup (C) are expected to report their quarterly results later this week. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth (UNH) and Netflix (NFLX), among others, also report this week.First Hawaiian (FHB) agreed to acquire TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) in an all-stock deal to create one of the largest banks headquartered in the western US, with combined assets of about $34 billion. First Hawaiian shares fell 3.3%, while TriCo jumped 12%.Gold fell 2.6% to $4,005.10 per troy ounce, while silver lost 3.9% to $57.83 per ounce.

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Singapore's Q2 Growth Exceeds Forecast as AI Demand Boosts Manufacturing

Genesis Minerals, Vault Minerals Agree to AU$12.6 Billion Merger After Genesis Outbids Regis

Update: Nasdaq Snaps 3-Day Winning Streak as Oil Jumps Amid US-Iran Tensions